Christian Moraes (Port Adelaide) Over 10.5 Disposals (-357)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Moraes is one of the more reliable disposal accumulators in this market right now, and the line of 10.5 looks well below where he's actually operating. The model has him projecting at 14.6 disposals — a 4.1-disposal gap above the line — and his recent form backs that up hard. Over his last nine games he's cleared 10.5 disposals in eight of them, an 89% hit rate, and specifically away from home he's averaging 13.4 over his last five trips with a 4/5 hit rate. Against St Kilda in particular, his L5 average lifts to 14.0, which is encouraging. The disposal split tells a clean story too — 6.4 kicks and 7.0 handballs away, with 75% efficiency and just 1.6 turnovers, meaning these are genuine ball-uses, not scrappy contested touches. At $1.28 the implied probability sits at 78.1%, and the model's 1.2% edge is modest but real against a line this soft.