Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brodie Smith is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +1.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
AFL
Brodie Smith
Adelaide Crows
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 14.5
-227 (1.44)
+1.4% Edge
Adelaide Crows
@
Hawthorn Hawks
University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston, TAS · Outdoor
Fri 13 Jun, 9:40AM
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Implied Probability
69.4%
Predicted Value
17.3 Disposals
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 70.8% | — | 69.4% | 1.41 | +1.4% |
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Brodie Smith (Adelaide Crows) Over 14.5 Disposals (-227)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Brodie Smith is poised to shine in the upcoming away game against Hawthorn based on his recent form. With a solid average of 18.2 disposals in his last five away matches and a strong history of 20.7 disposals against Hawthorn, he is expected to surpass the bookmaker's line of 14.5 disposals. Smith's exceptional disposal efficiency of 73.5% and consistent performance in contested possessions and interceptions further support this bet. His current away hit streak of 14 games and a high hit rate against Hawthorn indicate a high likelihood of him exceeding the line. Considering his steady form and favorable matchup, backing Brodie Smith to achieve over 14.5 disposals seems like a promising wager for this game.
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Betting angles
Markets & formDisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted 16.2avg disposals recent
Season best27
Disposals last 10avg 16.2 · hi 22 · lo 2
Brodie Smith has a disposals high of 27 in AFL.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Brodie Smith (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brodie Smith is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.4% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks on Friday 13 June at University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.