Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brodie Smith is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +1.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 11:14PM UTC
AFL
Brodie Smith
Adelaide Crows
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 14.5
-227 (1.44) · $100→$144
+1.4% Edge
Adelaide Crows
@
Hawthorn Hawks
University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston, TAS · Outdoor
Fri 13 Jun, 9:40AM
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Implied Probability
69.4%
Predicted Value
17.3 Disposals
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 70.8% | — | 69.4% | 1.41 | +1.4% |
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Brodie Smith (Adelaide Crows) Over 14.5 Disposals (-227)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Brodie Smith is poised to shine in the upcoming away game against Hawthorn based on his recent form. With a solid average of 18.2 disposals in his last five away matches and a strong history of 20.7 disposals against Hawthorn, he is expected to surpass the bookmaker's line of 14.5 disposals. Smith's exceptional disposal efficiency of 73.5% and consistent performance in contested possessions and interceptions further support this bet. His current away hit streak of 14 games and a high hit rate against Hawthorn indicate a high likelihood of him exceeding the line. Considering his steady form and favorable matchup, backing Brodie Smith to achieve over 14.5 disposals seems like a promising wager for this game.
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Season averages (2024)
Brodie Smith averaged 17.6 disposals, 0.0 goals and 3.5 marks per game across 15 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (19 Jul 24 vs Essendon), Brodie Smith recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 19 Jul 24 | Essendon | 15 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 Jul 24 | St Kilda | 13 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 Jul 24 | Brisbane Lions | 22 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 6 Jun 24 | Richmond | 20 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 Jun 24 | Hawthorn | 19 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| 26 May 24 | West Coast Eagles | 15 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| 18 May 24 | Collingwood | 18 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| 12 May 24 | Brisbane Lions | 16 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 2 May 24 | Port Adelaide | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 Apr 24 | Essendon | 22 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Brodie Smith (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brodie Smith is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.4% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks on Friday 13 June at University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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