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Brodie Smith

Adelaide Crows

Value call

Brodie Smith (Adelaide Crows) has one live pick today: over 14.5 disposals that pays $146 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
17.2 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 70.5% · the book's price implies 68.5% · gap +2.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Adelaide Crows @ Hawthorn Hawks
UTAS Stadium, Launceston, TAS · Outdoor
Fri 13 Jun, 7:40 PM AEST
Brodie Smith
over 14.5 disposals
Disposals Over 14.5 -217 (1.46) · $100→$146
Value call
HIGHWins about 71 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.60 Odds-217
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brodie Smith is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 71%, the price says 68%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:49PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.5%—68.5%1.42+2.0%

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AI Analysis

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Brodie Smith (Adelaide Crows) Over 14.5 Disposals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Brodie Smith is a solid bet to go over 14.5 disposals against Hawthorn based on his recent form and historical performance. With a model predicting 17.2 disposals and a 5 SD, his consistent L5 averages of 18.2 disposals in away games and 20.7 against the upcoming opponent suggest he can meet or exceed the line. Smith's high disposalefficiency (73.5%) and successful hit streak of 14 away games further support his ability to maintain possession. Additionally, his strong performance in contested possessions, intercepts, and kicks provides a well-rounded skill set for meeting this line. Considering his track record and current form, the Over on Brodie Smith's disposals is a reasonable bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Brodie Smith averaged 17.6 disposals, 0.0 goals and 3.5 marks per game across 15 games in 2024.

17.6
Disposals
0.0
Goals
3.5
Marks
2.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (19 Jul 24 vs Essendon), Brodie Smith recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
19 Jul 24Essendon15033
13 Jul 24St Kilda13014
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions22042
6 Jun 24Richmond20042
1 Jun 24Hawthorn19061
26 May 24West Coast Eagles15051
18 May 24Collingwood18061
12 May 24Brisbane Lions16012
2 May 24Port Adelaide2003
19 Apr 24Essendon22021
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Brodie Smith (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brodie Smith is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.0% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks on Friday 13 June at UTAS Stadium, Launceston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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