Jack Williams (West Coast Eagles) Over 0.5 Goals (-137)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jack Williams shapes as a solid play to kick at least one goal at Optus Stadium on Sunday. The model has him projecting 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 6.2% edge over the implied probability of 57.8% — meaningful value at $1.73. His L5 home record shows he's averaging 0.6 goals with a shot at goal per game and a 40% conversion rate, which is modest, but the 2/3 hit rate in his last three home games demonstrates he's finding the big sticks consistently enough. More compelling is his L5 record against Hawthorn specifically — averaging a goal per game — and his broader L5 overall figures look sharper still: 1.2 goals, two shots at goal, and a 53.3% accuracy rate across all venues. With a score involvement average of 4.2 and 1.2 marks inside 50, Williams is generating genuine forward opportunities. The home crowd and familiar conditions only help his case.