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AFL

Blake Acres

Carlton

+4.8% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -333 (1.30)
+4.8% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues
MCG, Melbourne
Fri 4 Jul, 9:20AM
Model Probability
81.7%
Implied Probability
76.9%
Model Edge
+4.8%
Predicted Value
19.0 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Blake Acres (Carlton) Over 14.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Blake Acres is poised to shine in this matchup against Collingwood based on his stellar recent form. With a model prediction of 19 disposals, well above the line of 14.5, and a strong hit rate of 18/20 in home games, Acres is expected to dominate in contested possessions (5.6) and kicks (11). His solid disposal efficiency (69.0%) and ability to cover ground (322 meters gained) further support this bet. Additionally, his historical performance against Collingwood (24.3 disposals on average) and overall consistency in recent games make him a reliable choice to surpass the line. This bet offers a 4.8% edge, indicating good value for Acres to deliver in this game at home.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (2 picks) 100.0% (2/2)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 25 Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues Disposals 14.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
15 Jun 25 Carlton Blues @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 19.5 Under -125 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Blake Acres (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 2 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 100.0% (2/2). The latest model pick for Blake Acres is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.8% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues on Friday 4 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.