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The latest Bet Better model pick for Blake Acres is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 77%, for a model edge of +4.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Blake Acres

Carlton

+4.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -333 (1.30)
+4.8% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Jul, 9:20AM
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Model Probability
81.7%
Implied Probability
76.9%
Model Edge
+4.8%
Predicted Value
19.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals81.7%—76.9%1.22+4.8%

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AI Analysis

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Blake Acres (Carlton) Over 14.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Blake Acres is poised to shine with an impressive L5 average of 18 disposals in home games and a strong track record against Collingwood, averaging 24.3 disposals. His recent form includes solid contested possessions (5.6) and efficient disposals (69.0%). With his knack for gaining meters (322) and contributing interceptions (2.8), Acres is a reliable choice to surpass the 14.5 disposal line. The model's prediction of 19 disposals, coupled with a 4.8% edge, indicates a high probability of success. Considering his consistency and matchup history, betting on Acres to exceed 14.5 disposals seems like a solid wager for the upcoming game at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
22.5avg disposals recent
Season best33
Disposals last 10avg 22.5 · hi 33 · lo 14
24331827141828191925

Blake Acres has a disposals high of 33 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Blake Acres (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Blake Acres is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.8% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues on Friday 4 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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