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The latest Bet Better model pick for Blake Acres is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +3.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:29PM UTC
AFL

Blake Acres

Carlton

+3.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -263 (1.38) · $100→$138
+3.6% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
76.0%
Implied Probability
72.5%
Model Edge
+3.6%
Predicted Value
20.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.0%—72.5%1.32+3.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Blake Acres (Carlton) Over 16.5 Disposals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball-winners, Blake Acres stands out. In his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 21.8 disposals. What's more impressive is his consistency, hitting an average of 20 disposals against both this week's opponents, St Kilda, and his overall L5 average. His recent form is red hot, boasting a pristine 75.9% disposal efficiency and a knack for gaining crucial meters. With his current form hitting a peak, including a streak of 9 consecutive hits, betting on Acres to surpass 16.5 disposals is as safe as houses. Expect him to be at the heart of every Blues' move, racking up possessions like a seasoned pro.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 20.5
20.2avg disposals L5
Away21.8vs St Kilda24.8Season best33
O 18.570%
O 19.570%
O 20.560%
O 21.540%
O 22.530%
O 23.520%
Game log vs line (O 20.5)avg 22.5 · hi 33 · lo 14
24331827141828191925

Blake Acres has gone over 20.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 20.2 disposals, best 33).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 16.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 15.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Blake Acres (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Blake Acres is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.6% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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