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The latest Bet Better model pick for Blake Acres is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 55%, implied 72%, edge +3.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 3:10AM UTC
AFL

Blake Acres

Carlton

+3.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -263 (1.38) · $100→$138
+3.6% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
20.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 76.0% · the book's price implies 72.5% · gap +3.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.0%55.2%72.5%1.81+3.6%

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AI Analysis

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Blake Acres (Carlton) Over 16.5 Disposals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball-winners, Blake Acres stands out. In his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 21.8 disposals. What's more impressive is his consistency, hitting an average of 20 disposals against both this week's opponents, St Kilda, and his overall L5 average. His recent form is red hot, boasting a pristine 75.9% disposal efficiency and a knack for gaining crucial meters. With his current form hitting a peak, including a streak of 9 consecutive hits, betting on Acres to surpass 16.5 disposals is as safe as houses. Expect him to be at the heart of every Blues' move, racking up possessions like a seasoned pro.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Blake Acres averaged 22.4 disposals, 0.6 goals and 6.0 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

22.4
Disposals
0.6
Goals
6.0
Marks
2.8
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Blake Acres has cleared 14.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o14.5100%
o15.5100%
o17.570%
o18.570%
o20.550%
o21.530%
o23.520%
o25.510%
o26.510%
o28.510%
o29.510%
o31.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Blake Acres is averaging 21.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

21.4
Disp · Overall
0.6
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Blake Acres recorded 25 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions25150
25 Aug 24St Kilda19292
18 Aug 24West Coast Eagles19051
11 Aug 24Hawthorn28182
3 Aug 24Collingwood18161
21 Jul 24North Melbourne14032
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs27053
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS18152
30 Jun 24Richmond33032
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats24184
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 16.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 15.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Blake Acres (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Blake Acres is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.6% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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