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AFL

Blake Acres

Carlton

Value call

Blake Acres (Carlton) has one live pick today: over 16.5 disposals that pays $141 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
55 in 100
Predicted
20.0 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 55.2% · before adjusting for past results 76.0% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap -15.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 7:20 PM AEST
Blake Acres
over 16.5 disposals
Disposals Over 16.5 -244 (1.41) · $100→$141
Value call
LEANWins about 55 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.10 Odds-244
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Blake Acres is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 55%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 13, 2:20AM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.0%55.2%70.9%1.81+5.1%

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AI Analysis

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Blake Acres (Carlton) Over 16.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Blake Acres has been a midfield maestro in his last five away games, consistently racking up possessions with an average of 21.8 disposals. Facing St Kilda, a team he already averages 20 disposals against, Acres is set to shine. His recent form boasts impressive numbers: 10.2 handballs, 11.6 kicks, and 363 meters gained per game. With a solid disposal efficiency of 75.9% and a knack for intercepts (averaging 3.2), Acres is a reliable ball magnet. His current hit streak of 4 away games and an overall hit rate of 9 out of 9 further reinforce his consistency. Expect Acres to thrive in the midfield battle, easily surpassing the 16.5 disposal line as he continues his hot streak.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Blake Acres averaged 22.4 disposals, 0.6 goals and 6.0 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

22.4
Disposals
0.6
Goals
6.0
Marks
2.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Blake Acres recorded 25 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions25150
25 Aug 24St Kilda19292
18 Aug 24West Coast Eagles19051
11 Aug 24Hawthorn28182
3 Aug 24Collingwood18161
21 Jul 24North Melbourne14032
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs27053
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS18152
30 Jun 24Richmond33032
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats24184
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 16.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Blake Acres (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Blake Acres is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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