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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Williams is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 69 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 69%, implied 80%, edge +1.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 29, 1:15AM UTC
AFL

Bailey Williams

Western Bulldogs

+1.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+1.6% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
4.8 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 81.6% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap +1.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks81.6%68.9%80.0%1.45+1.6%

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AI Analysis

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Bailey Williams (Western Bulldogs) Over 2.5 player_marks_over (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to snagging marks, Bailey Williams of the Western Bulldogs has been commanding the airwaves lately. In his last five home games, he's been averaging a tidy 3 marks, and when facing off against Collingwood, he's even more of a marking machine, boasting an average of 3.5 marks. Williams isn't just about quantity; his quality shines through with an average of 0.4 marks inside 50 in his recent home clashes. With the Magpies struggling to contain him, averaging a whopping 5.2 marks against them, Williams seems primed to soar above the 2.5 mark line set by the bookies. So, if you're looking to back a sure-handed aerial threat in this Friday night showdown at the MCG, Bailey Williams is your man to split the middle in the 'Player Marks Over' market.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Bailey Williams averaged 19.0 disposals, 0.4 goals and 5.7 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

19.0
Disposals
0.4
Goals
5.7
Marks
2.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Bailey Williams has cleared 12.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o12.580%
o13.580%
o15.560%
o17.560%
o19.550%
o20.550%
o22.520%
o24.520%
o26.510%
o27.510%
o29.50%
o31.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Bailey Williams is averaging 20.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

20.6
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Bailey Williams recorded 22 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn22162
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS22162
18 Aug 24North Melbourne15172
11 Aug 24Adelaide Crows14124
2 Aug 24Melbourne18173
28 Jul 24Sydney Swans19040
20 Jul 24Geelong Cats14041
13 Jul 24Carlton11130
6 Jul 24Port Adelaide10032
29 Jun 24North Melbourne250100
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 22.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks — — — Pending
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Williams (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Williams is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.6% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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