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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Williams is Under 22.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +20.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 8, 10:08PM UTC
AFL

Bailey Williams

Western Bulldogs

+20.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 22.5 -115 (1.87)
+20.0% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 31 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
73.5%
Implied Probability
53.5%
Model Edge
+20.0%
Predicted Value
19.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.5%53.5%1.36+20.0%

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AI Analysis

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Bailey Williams (Western Bulldogs) Under 22.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Williams might be a talented player, but the numbers suggest a quieter game ahead when the Western Bulldogs face Fremantle. In his last five away games, Williams has averaged 21 disposals, flirting with the line set at 22.5. However, recent matchups against Fremantle show him averaging just 16.6 disposals, below his usual output. His disposalefficiency, while solid at 77.2%, might not be enough to push him over this line, especially with the pressure Fremantle applies. With his recent form showing a turnover average of 5.2 per game, the Dockers could capitalize on any errors he makes. Betting under 22.5 disposals for Bailey Williams seems justified, given the historical trends and matchup dynamics at play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
17avg disposals recent
Season best29
Disposals last 10avg 17 · hi 25 · lo 10
25101114191814152222

Bailey Williams has a disposals high of 29 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 22.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 16.5 Over -244 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Williams (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Williams is Under 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.0% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 31 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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