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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Williams is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +1.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 19, 8:14PM UTC
AFL

Bailey Williams

Western Bulldogs

+1.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -244 (1.41)
+1.1% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
72.0%
Implied Probability
70.9%
Model Edge
+1.1%
Predicted Value
19.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.0%—70.9%1.39+1.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Bailey Williams (Western Bulldogs) Over 16.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Williams is poised to light up the field when the Western Bulldogs face off against the Gold Coast Suns. In his last five away games, Williams has been a disposal machine, averaging a whopping 19.8 disposals, well above the 16.5 line set for this clash. His ability to find the ball is unmatched, with a keen eye for intercepts and a knack for gaining crucial metres. Facing the Suns, he's maintained a solid average of 18 disposals in their recent encounters. With an impressive 74.8% disposal efficiency and a history of consistently hitting over his line, Williams is primed to dominate the midfield and surpass expectations once again. Bet confidently on Williams to shine and rack up the disposals in this high-stakes matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 14.5
15avg disposals L5
Away19.8vs Gold Coast SUNS17.8Season best29
O 12.580%
O 13.580%
O 14.580%
O 15.570%
O 16.570%
O 17.560%
Game log vs line (O 14.5)avg 17 · hi 25 · lo 10
25101114191814152222

Bailey Williams has gone over 14.5 disposals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 15 disposals, best 29).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 16.5 Over -244 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 14.5 Over -400 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Williams (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Williams is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.1% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns on Sunday 19 July at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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