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The latest Bet Better model pick for Aliir Aliir is Under 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +15.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
AFL

Aliir Aliir

Port Adelaide

+15.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 16.5 -120 (1.83)
+15.9% Edge
West Coast Eagles @ Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sun 29 Mar, 1:30AM
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Model Probability
70.6%
Implied Probability
54.6%
Model Edge
+15.9%
Predicted Value
13.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.6%—54.6%1.42+15.9%

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AI Analysis

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Aliir Aliir (Port Adelaide) Under 16.5 Disposals (-120)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Aliir Aliir, the defensive linchpin for Port Adelaide, has been a force to be reckoned with at home. In his last five home games, Aliir has showcased his prowess with an average of 15.2 disposals, comfortably below the 16.5 line. His ability to read the play and rack up intercepts (avg. 7) has been instrumental in stifling opposition attacks. Not only does Aliir excel in contested possessions (avg. 5.4), but his disposal efficiency (81.5%) sets him apart as a reliable distributor from the backline. Against the West Coast Eagles, Aliir has historically maintained an average of 10.8 disposals, reinforcing his value in shutting down their forward thrusts. With his recent form and consistent performance, backing Aliir Aliir to stay under 16.5 disposals at Adelaide Oval is a solid bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
14.4avg disposals recent
Season best22
Disposals last 10avg 14.4 · hi 22 · lo 10
22171313141013161115

Aliir Aliir has a disposals high of 22 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
29 Mar 26 West Coast Eagles @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 16.5 Under -120 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Aliir Aliir (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aliir Aliir is Under 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.9% on this pick. Their next game is West Coast Eagles vs Port Adelaide Power on Sunday 29 March at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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