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The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Naughton is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 94%, versus the book's implied 78%, for a model edge of +16.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:46AM UTC
AFL

Aaron Naughton

Western Bulldogs

+16.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
+16.2% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 24 Aug, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.3%
Implied Probability
78.1%
Model Edge
+16.2%
Predicted Value
2.7 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals94.3%78.1%1.06+16.2%

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Naughton (Western Bulldogs) Over 1.5 Goals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Aaron Naughton's recent form, especially at home, makes him a strong bet to score over 1.5 goals against Fremantle. With a 3-game hit streak and an 8-game hit streak overall, he is in top form. Naughton's L5 stats show an average of 2.8 goals in home games, exceeding the line comfortably. Against Fremantle, he averages 2.5 goals in recent matchups, further supporting his goal-scoring potential. His high goal accuracy (68.4%) and significant involvement in scoring opportunities (8 score involvements per game) indicate a consistent threat in front of goal. With his current momentum and historical performance, Naughton is poised to snag more than 1.5 goals in this match.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.4avg goals recent
Season best6
Goals last 10avg 1.4 · hi 3 · lo 0
1202020223

Aaron Naughton has a goals high of 6 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Aaron Naughton (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Naughton is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.2% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Western Bulldogs on Sunday 24 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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