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The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Naughton is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 94 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 94%, implied 78%, edge +16.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 12:02PM UTC
AFL

Aaron Naughton

Western Bulldogs

+16.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
+16.2% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 24 Aug, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
94 in 100
Predicted
2.7 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 94.3% · the book's price implies 78.1% · gap +16.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals94.3%—78.1%1.06+16.2%

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Naughton (Western Bulldogs) Over 1.5 Goals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Aaron Naughton's recent form, especially at home, makes him a strong bet to score over 1.5 goals against Fremantle. With a 3-game hit streak and an 8-game hit streak overall, he is in top form. Naughton's L5 stats show an average of 2.8 goals in home games, exceeding the line comfortably. Against Fremantle, he averages 2.5 goals in recent matchups, further supporting his goal-scoring potential. His high goal accuracy (68.4%) and significant involvement in scoring opportunities (8 score involvements per game) indicate a consistent threat in front of goal. With his current momentum and historical performance, Naughton is poised to snag more than 1.5 goals in this match.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Aaron Naughton averaged 11.5 disposals, 1.8 goals and 5.1 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

11.5
Disposals
1.8
Goals
5.1
Marks
1.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Aaron Naughton recorded 8 disposals and 3 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn8330
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS10242
18 Aug 24North Melbourne13263
11 Aug 24Adelaide Crows4022
2 Aug 24Melbourne8261
28 Jul 24Sydney Swans180101
20 Jul 24Geelong Cats10250
6 Jul 24Port Adelaide0000
29 Jun 24North Melbourne8251
23 May 24Sydney Swans3110
Quick answers:How many disposals does Aaron Naughton average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Aaron Naughton (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Naughton is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.2% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Western Bulldogs on Sunday 24 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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