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Model picks & player props
Collingwood Magpies
VS
St Kilda Saints

Collingwood Magpies vs St Kilda Saints Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 5:27PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sun 8 Mar 2026, 8:20AM
8
Game markets graded
22
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 181.5 (Total Points)
The model graded 30 markets for Collingwood Magpies vs St Kilda Saints (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 72.4%, fair odds 1.38, book price -111, model edge +19.7%. Tip-off Sun 8 Mar 2026, 8:20AM at MCG.

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
181.5
+ 7 more markets
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🔒

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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Saints

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Collingwood Magpies vs St Kilda Saints: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Hugo Garcia St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jordan De Goey Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tom De Koning Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Dan Houston Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Marcus Windhager St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Collingwood Magpies @ St Kilda Saints — what the model found

Our model graded 30 betting markets for Collingwood Magpies at St Kilda Saints — 8 on the game itself and 22 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

8
Game markets graded
22
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 30 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 29 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Collingwood Magpies @ St Kilda Saints — model preview

Expert analysis and top betting picks for St Kilda Saints vs Collingwood Magpies. Includes analysis on key players like Rowan Marshall. Discover AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, St Kilda Saints vs Collingwood Magpies stats and odds.

Rowan Marshall (St Kilda) Over 13.5 Disposals (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to picking a player prop bet, Rowan Marshall for the St Kilda Saints is a standout choice to surpass 13.5 disposals against the Collingwood Magpies. Marshall's recent form at home has been nothing short of stellar, averaging a hefty 19.8 disposals over his last five games. His consistency is key, having hit double-digit disposals in all of his last 10 home matches. Against Collingwood specifically, Marshall has been even more dominant, averaging 22.5 disposals in their recent encounters. With his exceptional ball-winning ability, strong contested possessions, and reliable disposal efficiency, Marshall is poised to once again hit the mark and deliver for the Saints in front of their home crowd at the MCG. Bet confidently on Marshall to shine in the disposals department this weekend.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Collingwood Magpies vs St Kilda Saints in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Magpies vs Saints, or as Saints vs Magpies. The most recent game between them was Sunday 8 March 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 8 game picks and 22 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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