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Model picks & player props
St Kilda Saints
VS
Port Adelaide Power

St Kilda Saints vs Port Adelaide Power Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Outdoor
Sun 12 Apr 2026, 9:15AM
6
Game Picks
13
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Port Adelaide Power 7.5 (Spread)
For St Kilda Saints vs Port Adelaide Power (AFL), model win probability 65.2%, fair odds 1.53, book price -111, model edge +12.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Apr 2026, 9:15AM at Adelaide Oval.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Port Adelaide Power
8.5
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Port Adelaide PowerSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Port Adelaide PowerSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Saints

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Power

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St Kilda Saints vs Port Adelaide Power: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ollie Wines Port Adelaide Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jason Horne-Francis Port Adelaide Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Rowan Marshall St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Hugo Garcia St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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St Kilda Saints @ Port Adelaide Power — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Port Adelaide Power vs St Kilda Saints? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Miles Bergman. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Port Adelaide Power vs St Kilda Saints stats and odds.</p>

Miles Bergman (Port Adelaide) Over 15.5 Disposals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to finding value in the disposals market, Miles Bergman stands out like a shining star under the Adelaide Oval lights. With his recent form averaging 16.8 disposals in his last five home games, Bergman has been a midfield maestro, consistently racking up the possessions. Against St Kilda, he's even more prolific, boasting an average of 20.3 disposals in their recent matchups. Bergman's ability to find the footy, coupled with his impressive disposal efficiency of 65.8%, makes him a prime candidate to not just hit but surpass the 15.5 disposal line. This game is set to be a showcase of his skill and impact, making backing Bergman to go over in the disposals market a smart and potentially rewarding play for punters looking to snag a winning bet on this AFL clash.

Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) Over 14.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Hugo Garcia hitting the over on 14.5 disposals in the upcoming clash against Port Adelaide, the numbers paint a clear picture. In his last five away games, Hugo has been a midfield maestro, averaging 18.4 disposals, well above the line. His ball use has been slick, with a disposal efficiency of 68.5%, ensuring he maximizes possessions. With an average of 10 kicks and 8.4 handballs per game, Hugo is a dual threat in moving the ball forward. Facing Port Adelaide, he has historically outperformed his average disposals, boasting a solid 9.5 disposals per game against them. Riding a hot streak with 5 out of 6 away games hitting the mark, trust Hugo Garcia to continue his midfield dominance and surpass 14.5 disposals comfortably.

Miles Bergman (Port Adelaide) Over 14.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk about Miles Bergman and why he's the player to watch for hitting over 14.5 disposals in the upcoming clash between Port Adelaide Power and St Kilda Saints at Adelaide Oval. Bergman's recent home game performance is a solid indicator. Averaging 16.8 disposals at home, with a whopping 20.3 against St Kilda in the last five encounters, he's been a midfield force. His ability to cover ground is evident, with 373.2 meters gained on average in his last 5 home games. Plus, with a 65.8% disposal efficiency, he's not just racking up numbers but doing it cleanly. The model's prediction of 18.2 disposals gives us confidence, and with a 69.0% implied probability, the Over 14.5 line looks like a smart play for Bergman. Expect him to be in the thick of the action, driving Port Adelaide forward and snagging those crucial possessions.

Rowan Marshall (St Kilda) Over 11.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop in the AFL, you want reliability and consistency. Rowan Marshall of the St Kilda Saints embodies just that. His recent form is nothing short of impressive, averaging 18.6 disposals over his last five away games. Facing Port Adelaide, Marshall's historical average against them sits at a solid 13.7 disposals. With a current hit streak of 11 away games and an overall hit rate of 14 out of the last 15, Marshall is a safe bet to exceed the 11.5 disposals line set by sportsbet. His ability to impact the game through contested possessions, kicks, and intercepts makes him a strong contender to shine on the field and snag us a win in the disposals market.

Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) Over 13.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Hugo Garcia hitting the Over 13.5 disposals mark against Port Adelaide, the numbers are singing a tune that's hard to ignore. In his last five away games, Garcia has been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 18.4 disposals, well above the line set for this clash. His recent form boasts an impressive 68.5% disposal efficiency, making every possession count. Facing Port Adelaide, a team he's historically dominated with 9.5 disposals per game in their last five encounters, Garcia is poised to feast on the contested possessions and rack up the numbers. With a current hit streak on the road and a hunger for the footy, backing Hugo Garcia to go over 13.5 disposals is a move that aligns perfectly with his recent stellar performances.

Cooper Sharman (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Cooper Sharman is a force to be reckoned with, especially when he hits the road. In his last five away games, he's been a consistent threat in front of goal, averaging 1.4 goals per game. With an impressive goal accuracy rate of 38.7% in away matches, he's shown he can split the middle under pressure. Facing off against Port Adelaide, a team he's recently snagged an average of 1 goal per game against, Sharman has a history of delivering when it matters most. His recent form also boasts an average of 2.2 shots at goal per away game, indicating he's not afraid to take his chances. Considering Sharman's track record and the data pointing towards his goal-scoring prowess, backing him to score over 0.5 goals against Port Adelaide looks like a smart play for footy punters looking to capitalize on his attacking threat.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
12 Apr 26 Spread Port Adelaide Power 8.5 ✗ MISS
12 Apr 26 Spread Port Adelaide Power 7.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St Kilda Saints vs Port Adelaide Power in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026 at Adelaide Oval. The model has generated 6 game picks and 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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