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Model picks & player props
Essendon Bombers
VS
Port Adelaide Power

Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:09PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Outdoor
Sun 22 Mar 2026, 4:15AM
8
Game Picks
19
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Port Adelaide Power (Head to Head)
For Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power (AFL), model win probability 73.9%, fair odds 1.35, book price -270, model edge +0.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 22 Mar 2026, 4:15AM at Adelaide Oval.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Head to Head
Port Adelaide Power
+ 7 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Port Adelaide PowerHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Power

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jaxon Prior Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Andrew McGrath Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Archie Roberts Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jye Caldwell Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mason Redman Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Port Adelaide Power vs Essendon Bombers? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Darcy Byrne-Jones. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Port Adelaide Power vs Essendon Bombers stats and odds.</p>

Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port Adelaide) Over 11.5 Disposals (-169)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals in this Port Adelaide Power vs Essendon Bombers clash, all signs point to Darcy Byrne-Jones. The man is a possession magnet, averaging a solid 16.2 disposals in his last five home games, with recent matchups against Essendon seeing him notch up 16 disposals on average. His ability to find space and create opportunities is evident in his 75.1% disposal efficiency at home. With an edge of 9.5% and an implied probability of 62.9%, taking the Over on Byrne-Jones exceeding 11.5 disposals seems like a smart play. Given his consistent form and the historical numbers against the Bombers, it’s a wager that aligns well with the data at hand.

Kane Farrell (Port Adelaide) Over 17.5 Disposals (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to surpass his disposal line, Kane Farrell is a prime candidate for the upcoming clash between Port Adelaide Power and Essendon Bombers at Adelaide Oval. Farrell has been a consistent performer, averaging 21.6 disposals in his last five home games. His ability to cover the ground is evident, with an average of 559 meters gained per game, showcasing his impact on the field. Facing Essendon in recent matchups has also been fruitful for Farrell, with an average of 17.4 disposals against them. With an impressive 78.8% disposal efficiency at home and a recent hit rate of 10/12, Farrell is in a prime position to shine. The model's prediction of 22.1 disposals further solidifies the case for backing Farrell to go Over 17.5 disposals in this game.

Miles Bergman (Port Adelaide) Over 15.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking ahead to the clash between Port Adelaide Power and Essendon Bombers, all eyes are on Miles Bergman to deliver a standout performance on his home turf at Adelaide Oval. Over his last 5 home games, Bergman has been a midfield dynamo, averaging a solid 18.6 disposals per game. His consistency in gathering possessions, coupled with a sharp disposalefficiency of 61.4%, makes him a reliable choice to surpass the 15.5 disposals line set by sportsbet. Bergman's ability to impact the game is evident in his knack for generating metres gained (450 avg) and winning contested possessions (5.8 avg). Against Essendon, he has maintained a high average of 15.3 disposals. With a model prediction of 18.2 disposals and a strong home performance track record, backing Bergman to go over 15.5 disposals is a smart play with a high probability of success.

Jaxon Prior (Essendon) Over 10.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When you're eyeing the 'Player Disposals Over' market in the Port Adelaide vs. Essendon clash, Jaxon Prior stands out as a prime target. Despite being away, Prior has been a midfield dynamo, churning out an average of 15 disposals over his last five away games. His recent form is red-hot, with an impressive 83.9% disposal efficiency to boot. Against Port Adelaide, he's elevated his game, averaging 11.3 disposals specifically against them in away fixtures. With a knack for racking up kicks (10.8 per game) and intercepts (4.6 per game), Prior is in the form of his life. Bet confidently on Prior to eclipse the 10.5 disposals mark, as he looks to maintain his stellar streak and lead the Bombers to victory.

Sam Durham (Essendon) Over 16.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam Durham is set to shine for the Essendon Bombers in their clash against Port Adelaide Power. With a stellar average of 20.4 disposals over his last five away games and a knack for racking up kicks and handballs, Durham is a midfield maestro. His ability to cover the ground efficiently with an average of 386.8 meters gained showcases his impact in transitioning play. Despite facing a formidable opponent, Durham's recent form of 17 disposals against this very team bodes well for exceeding the line of 16.5 disposals. With an impressive overall hit rate and a hunger for the contest evident in his contested possession numbers, backing Durham to surpass this mark is a solid bet with a high probability of success.

Port Adelaide Power vs Essendon Bombers : Port Adelaide Power Win (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Port Adelaide Power's recent form at home paints a picture of dominance. Over their last five home games, they've been a force to be reckoned with, averaging a margin of 11.4 points and conceding just 68.2 points on average. Their midfield prowess is evident, boasting an average of 34.2 total clearances and 117.4 contested possessions per game. With an average of 47.2 inside 50s, they consistently apply pressure on their opponents. In contrast, Essendon's away record shows vulnerability, with an average margin of -42.4 and conceding 94.2 points per game. Their lower averages in key areas like clearances and inside 50s could spell trouble against Port Adelaide's strong home performance. The data strongly favors a bet on Port Adelaide Power to snag the win in this contest.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

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DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at Adelaide Oval. The model has generated 8 game picks and 19 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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