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Model picks & player props
Essendon Bombers
VS
Port Adelaide Power

Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 3:50PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Outdoor
Sun 22 Mar 2026, 4:15AM
8
Game markets graded
19
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Port Adelaide Power (Moneyline)
The model graded 27 markets for Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $137 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 73.9%, fair odds 1.35, book price -270, model edge +0.9%. Tip-off Sun 22 Mar 2026, 4:15AM at Adelaide Oval.

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Port Adelaide Power
+ 7 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Port Adelaide PowerHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Power

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jaxon Prior Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Andrew McGrath Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Archie Roberts Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jye Caldwell Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mason Redman Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power — what the model found

Our model graded 27 betting markets for Essendon Bombers at Port Adelaide Power — 8 on the game itself and 19 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

8
Game markets graded
19
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 27 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 26 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power — model preview

Winning bets for Port Adelaide Power vs Essendon Bombers? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Darcy Byrne-Jones. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Port Adelaide Power vs Essendon Bombers stats and odds.

Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port Adelaide) Over 11.5 Disposals (-169)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals in this Port Adelaide Power vs Essendon Bombers clash, all signs point to Darcy Byrne-Jones. The man is a possession magnet, averaging a solid 16.2 disposals in his last five home games, with recent matchups against Essendon seeing him notch up 16 disposals on average. His ability to find space and create opportunities is evident in his 75.1% disposal efficiency at home. With an edge of 9.5% and an implied probability of 62.9%, taking the Over on Byrne-Jones exceeding 11.5 disposals seems like a smart play. Given his consistent form and the historical numbers against the Bombers, it’s a wager that aligns well with the data at hand.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Bombers vs Power, or as Power vs Bombers. The most recent game between them was Sunday 22 March 2026 at Adelaide Oval. The model has generated 8 game picks and 19 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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