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Model picks & player props
Richmond Tigers
VS
North Melbourne Kangaroos

Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 15, 7:25AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr 2026, 3:10AM
6
Game markets graded
14
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 180.5 (Total Points)
The model graded 20 markets for Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $188 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 71.6%, fair odds 1.40, book price -114, model edge +18.4%. Tip-off Sun 19 Apr 2026, 3:10AM at Marvel Stadium.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Tim Taranto Under 25.5 · $100 returned $193

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Points
Under
180.5
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
North Melbourne KangaroosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
North Melbourne KangaroosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
North Melbourne KangaroosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Tigers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Kangaroos

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Tim Taranto Richmond Disposals
Jonty Faull Richmond Goals
Jayden Short Richmond Disposals
Nick Vlastuin Richmond Disposals
Jack Darling North Melbourne Goals

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Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Richmond Tigers at North Melbourne Kangaroos — 6 on the game itself and 14 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Game markets graded
14
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos — model preview

Latest AFL betting preview: North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Aidan Corr. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers stats and odds.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers : North Melbourne Kangaroos -30.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this intriguing clash between the North Melbourne Kangaroos and the Richmond Tigers at Marvel Stadium. The Kangaroos have been showing some promising form lately, especially at home. In their last five home games, they've been averaging a solid 100.6 points for and have been keeping their opponents to 87 points against on average. Their inside 50s and shots on goal have been impressive too, with averages of 53 and 29.6 respectively. On the flip side, the Tigers have been struggling on the road, averaging a mere 57.8 points for and conceding 108.2 points against in their last five away games. With the Kangaroos boasting a strong offensive game at home and the Tigers faltering on the road, backing North Melbourne Kangaroos -30.5 in the spread market seems like a savvy play.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
19 Apr 26 Spread North Melbourne Kangaroos -26.5 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Spread North Melbourne Kangaroos -30.5 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Spread North Melbourne Kangaroos -25.5 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Total Points Under 180.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Tigers vs Kangaroos, or as Kangaroos vs Tigers. The most recent game between them was Sunday 19 April 2026 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 6 game picks and 14 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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