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Model picks & player props
Richmond Tigers
VS
North Melbourne Kangaroos

Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 26, 5:34AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr 2026, 3:10AM
14
Game Picks
14
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 180.5 (Total Points)
For Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (AFL), model win probability 71.6%, fair odds 1.40, book price -115, model edge +18.1%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 19 Apr 2026, 3:10AM at Marvel Stadium.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
180.5
+ 13 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
North Melbourne KangaroosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
North Melbourne KangaroosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
North Melbourne KangaroosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Tigers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Kangaroos

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Tim Taranto Richmond Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jonty Faull Richmond Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jayden Short Richmond Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nick Vlastuin Richmond Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Darling North Melbourne Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos — model preview

<p>Latest AFL betting preview: North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Aidan Corr. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers stats and odds.</p>

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers : North Melbourne Kangaroos -30.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this intriguing clash between the North Melbourne Kangaroos and the Richmond Tigers at Marvel Stadium. The Kangaroos have been showing some promising form lately, especially at home. In their last five home games, they've been averaging a solid 100.6 points for and have been keeping their opponents to 87 points against on average. Their inside 50s and shots on goal have been impressive too, with averages of 53 and 29.6 respectively. On the flip side, the Tigers have been struggling on the road, averaging a mere 57.8 points for and conceding 108.2 points against in their last five away games. With the Kangaroos boasting a strong offensive game at home and the Tigers faltering on the road, backing North Melbourne Kangaroos -30.5 in the spread market seems like a savvy play.

Aidan Corr (North Melbourne) Over 10.5 Disposals (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at Aidan Corr's recent form, it's clear he's been a pivotal figure in North Melbourne's defensive setup. In his last five home games, Corr has been a magnet for the ball, averaging a solid 9.8 disposals. Against Richmond specifically, he steps up even more, boasting an average of 16.5 disposals in their encounters. With a steady hand in intercepting plays (3 per game) and efficient disposal rates (69.8%), Corr is poised to not just meet but exceed the modest line of 10.5 disposals set by the bookies. Given his recent consistency and historical performance against the Tigers, backing Aidan Corr to go over 10.5 disposals seems like a smart play for this showdown at Marvel Stadium.

Nick Vlastuin (Richmond) Over 16.5 Disposals (-185)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to solid wagering opportunities, Nick Vlastuin stands out for the upcoming clash against North Melbourne. His recent away form paints a picture of consistency and impact. Over his last five away games, Vlastuin has averaged a healthy 15.4 disposals, comfortably surpassing the 16.5 line set for this game. What's particularly enticing is his ability to find the footy in various ways. Averaging 11.4 kicks and 4 handballs in away games, Vlastuin showcases his two-way contribution. His defensive prowess is evident with 5.6 intercepts per game, while his disposal efficiency of 88.3% ensures he maximizes every possession. Facing North Melbourne, a team he has historically performed well against, Vlastuin's recent averages of 15 disposals suggest he's poised to continue his impact. With a model prediction of 19.2 disposals and a solid edge, backing Vlastuin to go over 16.5 disposals is a smart play for this matchup at Marvel Stadium.

Aidan Corr (North Melbourne) Over 9.5 Disposals (-294)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Aidan Corr hitting the Over 9.5 disposals mark in the upcoming clash between North Melbourne and Richmond at Marvel Stadium, the stats paint a compelling picture. In his last five home games, Corr has been a solid contributor, averaging 9.8 disposals, with a notable efficiency of 69.8%. Against Richmond specifically, he steps up even more, averaging 16.5 disposals. With an overall average of 8.4 disposals, Corr's recent form suggests he's primed to surpass the 9.5 line. Plus, playing on home turf adds that extra edge. Corr's consistency and impact make him a strong bet to not only hit but potentially exceed the mark. It's not just numbers; it's about Corr's ability to get involved and influence the game, making this Over 9.5 disposals bet a smart play for footy punters.

Nick Vlastuin (Richmond) Over 15.5 Disposals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball-winning prowess, Nick Vlastuin of the Richmond Tigers stands out as a prime candidate to surpass the 15.5 disposals line against North Melbourne. Over his last five away games, Vlastuin has been a constant presence with an average of 15.4 disposals, showcasing his ability to impact the game from the backline. His impressive disposal efficiency of 88.3% underlines his composure under pressure, while his knack for intercepting opposition plays (averaging 5.6 intercepts) provides additional opportunities for possessions. Facing North Melbourne, against whom he averages 15 disposals, Vlastuin is poised to continue his solid form. With a recent hit rate of 9 out of 11 away games exceeding this mark, Vlastuin is primed to rack up the touches and help punters snag a winning bet.

Mykelti Lefau (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-370)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Mykelti Lefau is shining bright on the horizon. In his last five away games, he's been a force to be reckoned with, averaging 2 goals per match. His accuracy sits at an impressive 62%, making him a sharpshooter worth watching. With an average of 2.8 shots at goal and 3.6 score involvements per game, Lefau isn't just a goal kicker; he's a key playmaker for the Tigers. Facing North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Lefau's recent form, coupled with his hunger for the big sticks, makes him a prime candidate to hit the back of the net and help you secure that Over 0.5 goals bet. Trust in Lefau to deliver the goods in this clash.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
19 Apr 26 Total Points Under 180.5 ✗ MISS
19 Apr 26 Spread North Melbourne Kangaroos -26.5 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Spread North Melbourne Kangaroos -25.5 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Spread North Melbourne Kangaroos -30.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 14 game picks and 14 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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