Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Friday 08/07 (Noah Anderson Highlights): Best Value Bets

When looking at Ollie Wines' recent form away from home, it's clear he's been a pivotal figure for Port Adelaide, consistently racking up disposals. However, facing the Sydney Swans at the SCG presents a different challenge. In his last five away games, Wines has averaged 22.2 disposals, just under the line of 22.5. His disposal efficiency has been solid at 74.9%, but the Swans have been tough opponents for him historically, limiting him to an average of 15 disposals in their previous encounters. With the model predicting him to hit around 19.3 disposals, there's a 19.7% edge in favor of the under. Considering his recent struggles against the Swans and the potential for a tight contest, Wines may find it challenging to surpass the 22.5 mark in this matchup.

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 24.5 Disposals (-192)

Archie Roberts, the dynamic playmaker for the Essendon Bombers, is poised to make a significant impact in their clash against the Geelong Cats. In his last five away games, Roberts has been a midfield maestro, averaging a healthy 24 disposals. Facing the Cats, he's elevated his game even further, racking up an average of 30 disposals in their recent encounters. With his precise handballs, strong contested possessions, and impressive disposal efficiency of 79.8%, Roberts is a key cog in Essendon's midfield engine. Given his recent form and historical success against Geelong, backing Roberts to surpass 24.5 disposals at GMHBA Stadium seems like a solid bet. Get ready to watch him dominate the field and snag those crucial possessions to drive the Bombers forward.

Jye Amiss (Fremantle) Over 1.5 Goals (-227)

Looking at the upcoming clash between the Melbourne Demons and the Fremantle Dockers, all signs point to Jye Amiss snagging more than 1.5 goals. Amiss has been firing on all cylinders lately, averaging a solid 2.6 goals in his last five away games. His accuracy in front of the big sticks sits at an impressive 59.4%, making him a reliable scoring threat. With an average of 3.2 marks inside 50 and 6.6 score involvements per game, Amiss is not just a finisher but a crucial link in the Dockers' attacking chain. Facing Melbourne, against whom he's averaged 3.3 goals in his last five matchups, Amiss is poised to add to his tally. Bet on Amiss to light up the scoreboard and lead Fremantle's charge at the MCG.

Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) Over 21.5 Disposals (-161)

When it comes to locking in a footy bet, Hugo Garcia is the man to watch in this St Kilda Saints vs. Carlton Blues clash at Marvel Stadium. With a model predicting him to snag around 25.8 disposals, and a solid recent average of 25.8 disposals in his last five home games, Garcia's performance is on the upswing. His ability to find the footy is backed by his impressive 77.0% disposal efficiency and knack for gaining crucial metres (280.6 average). Facing Carlton, against whom he's notched an average of 12.3 disposals in their last five encounters, Garcia is poised to shine. With an implied probability of 61.7% to surpass 21.5 disposals, the numbers are in his favor. Get ready to see Garcia split the middle and surpass that line with ease.

Mitch Owens (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-204)

Looking at Mitch Owens' recent form, he's been knocking on the door of the goal square consistently. Despite only averaging 0.2 goals per game in his last five home matches, his 4.6 score involvements showcase his impact in setting up scoring opportunities. With an average of 1.6 shots at goal per game, Owens is getting his chances. Facing Carlton, a team against which he has previously scored, his goal accuracy of 60% in recent games adds confidence to the bet. Additionally, his current hit streak of 1 at home and a stellar home hit rate of 13/14 further support the case for Owens to snag at least one goal this game. Expect him to capitalize on his opportunities and split the middle to help you cash in on the Over 0.5 goals player prop bet.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.