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Model picks & player props
Atlético Madrid
VS
Alavés

Atlético Madrid vs Alavés Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 21, 12:21PM UTC

Our model graded 11 markets for Atlético Madrid vs Alavés and backs Alavés hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $270.

Soccer
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 2:15PM
11
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Alavés Draw No Bet +170

The model graded 11 markets for Atlético Madrid vs Alavés (Soccer) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $270 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 10 Oct 2026, 2:15PM.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win41.3%
The price says34.3%
Best price+170
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Draw No Bet Alavés Lean41% chance +170
Spread Members only Lean41% chance Members
Head to Head (3-Way) Members only Long-shot31% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Long-shot31% chance Members
Total Goals Members only High94% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every Soccer game on today's board →
Atlético Madrid are the model's favourite to beat Alavés, with a 69% chance to win. Kick-off Sat 10 Oct, 2:15PM. Best bet: Alavés at +170.
How they've been scoring this season
Atlético MadridAlavés
Won-lost5-1-13-2-2
Goals scored per game2.31.6
Goals allowed per game1.00.9
On the road / at home2-1-0 away3-1-0 at home
Last 5 gamesWLWWWWWLLD
Their games average 2.9 total goals this season.
From the 7 Atlético Madrid and 7 Alavés games on our books this season.
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Draw No Bet
Alavés
+170
+ 10 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
AlavésDraw No BetThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
AlavésSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
AlavésSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
AlavésHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
AlavésMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
AlavésSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Atlético Madrid

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Alavés

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Atlético Madrid vs Alavés: Soccer weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Soccer on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

1 market live
MoneylineAtlético Madrid @ AlavésNo line posted
2-1-5past meetings (last 8)
Draw29%Home form5-8-7Away form11-5-4
past meetings, home wins2 / 8 home

In their last 8 meetings, Alavés have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 5.

Both Teams to ScoreAtlético Madrid @ AlavésNo line posted
4 / 8past meetings, both scored
Alavés40%Atlético M50%
past meetings, both scored4 / 8 both scored

Both teams scored in 40% of Alavés's and 50% of Atlético Madrid's recent matches.

Total GoalsAtlético Madrid @ AlavésOver +0.5 -3333
93%model over %
4 / 8past meetings, over 2.5
Home ov2.520%Away ov2.545%past meetings avg2.3
past meetings, over 2.54 / 8 over

The last 8 meetings averaged 2.3 goals, over 2.5 in 4 of them; the model prices Over at 93% here.

Atlético Madrid @ Alavés — what the model found

Our model graded 11 betting markets for Atlético Madrid at Alavés — 11 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

11
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 11 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 10 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Atlético Madrid vs Alavés in the Soccer. The next scheduled game is Saturday 10 October 2026. The model has generated 11 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Soccer betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 1 meeting
Atlético Madrid 1–0 across the last meeting
DateGameScoreWinner
18 Jan 2026Alavés @ Atlético Madrid1–0Atlético Madrid
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