On Sunday 20 September 2026, Parma play Genoa in Serie A. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 5.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Parma vs Genoa: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-10000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Parma gears up to face Genoa, the signs point strongly towards a low-scoring affair. Both teams have struggled to find the back of the net lately, with Parma averaging just 0.6 goals per game in their last five matches. Meanwhile, Genoa hasn't fared any better, contributing a mere 0.4 goals during that span. Defensively, both squads have shown resilience, with Parma conceding only 1.2 goals per game at home, while Genoa has managed to keep their last away opponents to just 0.6 goals. With both teams lacking a cutting edge and their recent xG figures suggesting limited offensive output, betting on under 5.5 total goals seems tempting. Given these trends, it’s hard to envision a scenario where we see a goal fest, making this bet a smart play.
Parma vs Genoa: Over 4.5 Total Corners (-2000)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Parma hosts Genoa, the corner count could easily breach the 4.5 mark, making the “Over” bet appealing. Both teams are struggling to find the back of the net, averaging just 0.6 and 0.4 goals in their last five matches, respectively. However, their offensive output has led to plenty of shots—Parma averaging over 12 per game at home, and Genoa not far behind with 9. With both sides failing to convert chances into goals, expect more attempts flailing wide or saved, leading to corners. Parma’s recent home games have seen them earn about 1.4 corners per match, while Genoa's away games are slightly better at 0.8. Given the context and the teams’ desperation for points, this matchup should generate enough pressure in the final third to comfortably surpass that 4.5 corners line.
Parma vs Genoa: Over 5.5 Total Corners (-909)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Parma prepares to host Genoa, the stage is set for a corner-heavy encounter. Both teams have struggled offensively, with Parma averaging just 0.6 goals per game in their last five outings and Genoa even lower at 0.4. However, their defensive frailties have led to a flurry of corners. Parma has averaged over 10 shots per game at home, which typically translates into corners, while Genoa's away matches have also shown a trend toward corner accumulation, despite their lack of goals. The recent history between these two doesn’t favor either side, but it does suggest a contest where both will push for opportunities, leading to more set pieces. Given that both teams often concede corners and have a combined average of around 12 shots per game, expecting over 5.5 corners feels not just plausible but likely.
That is how our model reads Parma v Genoa. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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