On Friday 18 September 2026, Parma play Genoa in Serie A. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 5.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Parma vs Genoa: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-10000)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Parma gears up to host Genoa, the under 5.5 goals market catches my eye, and for good reason. Both teams are struggling offensively, with Parma averaging a mere 0.6 goals in their last five outings and Genoa not faring much better at 0.4. It's a stark contrast to the attacking flair we might expect in Serie A, highlighted by their xG figures recently hovering around zero. Defensively, both sides have tightened up, with Parma conceding just 1.2 goals per game at home and Genoa only allowing 1.8 over their last five. Historical matchups also support this trend; their last five encounters have shown a similar pattern, often leading to tightly contested affairs. Given the current form and scoring woes, it seems like a safe bet to expect a low-scoring match.

Parma vs Genoa: Genoa +2.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Parma prepares to host Genoa, the trends paint a compelling picture favoring the visitors. Parma's home form has been shaky, with just one win in their last five, coupled with a woeful scoring average of 0.6 goals per match recently. They've struggled to convert opportunities, posting an xG of zero in those outings. Genoa, despite their own challenges, have a more favorable history against Parma, going unbeaten in their last five encounters. Even though their away record isn’t stellar, they’ve shown resilience, limiting opponents to just 0.6 goals on average in away games. Given Parma's scoring woes and Genoa's knack for picking up points in this matchup, a bet on Genoa at -2.5 in the alternate handicap market feels justified. If history and current form hold true, Genoa could capitalize on Parma's vulnerabilities to secure a much-needed victory.

Parma vs Genoa: Parma +2.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Parma prepares to host Genoa, recent form and trends suggest a significant advantage for the home side. Despite a mixed home record over the last five matches (1-1-3), they've shown resilience, particularly in their last few fixtures at home, accumulating a decent xG average of 0 for their last five. Genoa, on the other hand, is struggling, managing just one point in their last five outings, with a dismal scoring average of 0.4 per match. They’ve also been unable to find the back of the net away from home. The head-to-head stats reveal a tight battle, but Parma’s overall performance is slightly more promising. With Genoa failing to turn up on the road, backing Parma with a handicap of 2.5 feels like a wise move. They have the edge to not only win but do so convincingly against a beleaguered Genoa side.

That is how our model reads Parma v Genoa. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article