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NHL

Kirill Marchenko

Toronto Maple Leafs

Value call

Kirill Marchenko (Toronto Maple Leafs) has one live pick today: over 2.5 shots on goal that pays $200 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
46 in 100
Predicted
2.6 shots on goal
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 45.6% · before adjusting for past results 55.6% · the book's price implies 50.0% · gap -4.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames
Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, FUT · Indoor
Mon 26 Oct, 8:30 PM ET
Kirill Marchenko
over 2.5 shots on goal
Shots on Goal Over 2.5 +100 (2.00) · $100→$200
Value call
LEANWins about 46 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$20.00 Odds+100
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kirill Marchenko is Over 2.5 on Shots on Goal.
On Shots on Goal, our numbers say this bet wins about 46 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 46%, the price says 50%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Nov 15, 4:05PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nhl points overs: 42 of 76 right · +$1,941 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
ir
updated Oct 29, 5:28PM UTC · 16d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots on Goal55.6%45.6%50.0%2.19+5.6%

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AI Analysis

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Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Kirill Marchenko Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100)

Odds correct at time of publishing

For Kirill Marchenko to go over 2.5 shots on goal tonight, he needs to be active and find good chances against the Calgary Flames. The Flames are decent at blocking shots, but they allow players to get their looks. Marchenko has been getting involved in the game lately, and with the Flames giving up enough opportunities, he could find himself with chances to shoot. Both teams are close in form, but the Flames have only won 4 of their last 10 games, which shows they might struggle defensively. Marchenko's ability to get shots off will be key, and he might find the room to do it. The biggest risk is that both teams play tight, but if he gets a couple of good chances, he could easily go over that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent game log

Kirill Marchenko has 5 goals and 6 assists (11 points) across his last 10 NHL games.

DateOppGAPSOGHitsTOI
26 Oct 26@ CGY0001007:05
24 Oct 26@ EDM0221015:47
22 Oct 26vs NYR1014418:23
20 Oct 26@ CBJ1012319:17
19 Oct 26vs SJS0112117:21
17 Oct 26vs NYI0005016:45
15 Oct 26vs BUF3033318:36
13 Oct 26@ UTA0112018:41
10 Oct 26@ COL0110116:53
8 Oct 26@ VGK0113018:20
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Oct 26 Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames Shots on Goal — — — Pending
26 Oct 26 Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames Shots on Goal — — — Pending

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About This Player

Kirill Marchenko (Toronto Maple Leafs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kirill Marchenko is Over 2.5 on Shots on Goal. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.6% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames on Monday 26 October at Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.

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