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The latest Bet Better model pick for James Harden is Under 3.5 on 3-Pointers.
On the 3-Pointers market the model assigns a model win probability of 66%, versus the book's implied 48%, for a model edge of +18.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 6:58AM UTC
NBA

James Harden

Cleveland Cavaliers

+18.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
3-Pointers Under 3.5 +110 (2.10) · $100→$210
+18.3% Edge
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH · Indoor
Wed 8 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
65.9%
Implied Probability
47.6%
Model Edge
+18.3%
Predicted Value
2.9 3-Pointers

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
3-Pointers65.9%—47.6%1.52+18.3%

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AI Analysis

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James Harden (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 3.5 Threes Made (+110)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Cleveland Cavaliers host the Atlanta Hawks, all eyes will be on James Harden's three-point shooting. While Harden has dazzled fans throughout his career, recent trends suggest he's primed for an underperformance in this matchup. Averaging just 2.6 threes in his last five games, Harden's recent home form doesn't inspire confidence either, sitting at a modest 3.0 per game. What's particularly striking is his average against the Hawks at home-3.5 threes, right at the line but not necessarily reliable. With his overall hit rate at just 5 of his last 6 attempts exceeding the 3.5 mark, the data hints at a regression. The Cavaliers' defense has been solid, and on a night where every possession counts, we can expect him to focus more on playmaking than shooting. Targeting an under on Harden's threes seems like the smart play here.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
2.8avg · last 10
L51.6Szn2.9Home2.8Away2.9Best10
1+98%
2+78%
3+52%
4+28%
5+18%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 2.8 · hi 5 · lo 0
5254431031

James Harden is averaging 2.8 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.9, best 10). He clears 3+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
9.4avg · last 10
L59.2Szn8.6Home9.2Away8.1Best21
5+90%
7+75%
9+50%
11+27%
13+11%
Game log vs O 8.5avg 9.4 · hi 13 · lo 5
1010101179115813

James Harden is averaging 9.4 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 8.6, best 21). He clears 9+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
22.8avg · last 10
L516.2Szn22.0Home22.3Away21.7Best61
12+92%
17+83%
22+49%
27+23%
32+10%
Game log vs O 21.5avg 22.8 · hi 39 · lo 7
3523393218201511287

James Harden is averaging 22.8 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 22.0, best 61). He clears 22+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
32.2avg · last 10
L525.4Szn30.6Home31.5Away29.8Best68
21+89%
26+72%
31+53%
36+26%
41+13%
Game log vs O 30.5avg 32.2 · hi 49 · lo 16
45334943252926163620

James Harden is averaging 32.2 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 30.6, best 68). He clears 31+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
28.7avg · last 10
L522.0Szn27.7Home28.0Away27.4Best76
18+91%
23+74%
28+49%
33+24%
38+15%
Game log vs O 27.5avg 28.7 · hi 46 · lo 12
38344638212619193412

James Harden is averaging 28.7 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 27.7, best 76). He clears 28+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
5.9avg · last 10
L55.8Szn5.6Home5.7Away5.6Best17
2+95%
4+74%
6+50%
8+26%
10+11%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 5.9 · hi 11 · lo 3
31176364865

James Harden is averaging 5.9 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.6, best 17). He clears 6+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
15.3avg · last 10
L515.0Szn14.3Home14.8Away13.7Best32
8+92%
11+75%
14+56%
17+36%
20+16%
Game log vs O 13.5avg 15.3 · hi 21 · lo 10
13211717101515131418

James Harden is averaging 15.3 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 14.3, best 32). He clears 14+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
1.5avg · last 10
L51.6Szn1.4Home1.3Away1.6Best7
1+80%
2+44%
3+14%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.5 · hi 2 · lo 0
2220102222

James Harden is averaging 1.5 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.4, best 7). He clears 1+ in 80% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Mar 26 Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers Points 20.5 Over -125 ✗ MISS
01 Mar 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets Steals 0.5 Over -278 ✗ MISS
01 Mar 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets Steals 1.5 Over +165 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

James Harden (Cleveland Cavaliers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for James Harden is Under 3.5 on 3-Pointers. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.3% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday 8 April at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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