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The latest Bet Better model pick for James Harden is Under 4.5 on 3-Pointers.
On the 3-Pointers market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +26.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
NBA

James Harden

Cleveland Cavaliers

+26.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
3-Pointers Under 4.5 -130 (1.77)
+26.2% Edge
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH · Indoor
Wed 8 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
82.7%
Implied Probability
56.5%
Model Edge
+26.2%
Predicted Value
2.9 3-Pointers

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
3-Pointers82.7%—56.5%1.21+26.2%

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AI Analysis

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James Harden (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 4.5 Threes Made (-130)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As James Harden gears up to face the Atlanta Hawks at home, the smart money is on him staying under 4.5 made threes. Despite his undeniable talent, recent trends tell a different story. Over his last five games, he's averaging just 2.6 threes, and even on his home court, that number nudges up to a modest 3. Against the Hawks, he's managed around 3.6 threes in recent matchups, but that's not quite enough to clear the 4.5 mark consistently. With Harden's hit rate sitting at an impressive 19 out of 20 at home, it's tempting to think he might rise to the occasion. However, with an expected stat value of just 2.93 and historical data pointing toward a drop-off, the under looks like a savvy play. Trust the numbers; Harden might light it up, but don't expect him to hit that fourth three this time around.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
2.8avg · last 10
L51.6Szn2.9Home2.8Away2.9Best10
1+98%
2+78%
3+52%
4+28%
5+18%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 2.8 · hi 5 · lo 0
5254431031

James Harden is averaging 2.8 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.9, best 10). He clears 3+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
9.4avg · last 10
L59.2Szn8.6Home9.2Away8.1Best21
5+90%
7+75%
9+50%
11+27%
13+11%
Game log vs O 8.5avg 9.4 · hi 13 · lo 5
1010101179115813

James Harden is averaging 9.4 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 8.6, best 21). He clears 9+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
22.8avg · last 10
L516.2Szn22.0Home22.3Away21.7Best61
12+92%
17+83%
22+49%
27+23%
32+10%
Game log vs O 21.5avg 22.8 · hi 39 · lo 7
3523393218201511287

James Harden is averaging 22.8 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 22.0, best 61). He clears 22+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
32.2avg · last 10
L525.4Szn30.6Home31.5Away29.8Best68
21+89%
26+72%
31+53%
36+26%
41+13%
Game log vs O 30.5avg 32.2 · hi 49 · lo 16
45334943252926163620

James Harden is averaging 32.2 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 30.6, best 68). He clears 31+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
28.7avg · last 10
L522.0Szn27.7Home28.0Away27.4Best76
18+91%
23+74%
28+49%
33+24%
38+15%
Game log vs O 27.5avg 28.7 · hi 46 · lo 12
38344638212619193412

James Harden is averaging 28.7 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 27.7, best 76). He clears 28+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
5.9avg · last 10
L55.8Szn5.6Home5.7Away5.6Best17
2+95%
4+74%
6+50%
8+26%
10+11%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 5.9 · hi 11 · lo 3
31176364865

James Harden is averaging 5.9 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.6, best 17). He clears 6+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
15.3avg · last 10
L515.0Szn14.3Home14.8Away13.7Best32
8+92%
11+75%
14+56%
17+36%
20+16%
Game log vs O 13.5avg 15.3 · hi 21 · lo 10
13211717101515131418

James Harden is averaging 15.3 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 14.3, best 32). He clears 14+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
1.5avg · last 10
L51.6Szn1.4Home1.3Away1.6Best7
1+80%
2+44%
3+14%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.5 · hi 2 · lo 0
2220102222

James Harden is averaging 1.5 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.4, best 7). He clears 1+ in 80% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers 3-Pointers 4.5 Under -130 ✓ HIT
08 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers 3-Pointers 3.5 Under +110 ✗ MISS
08 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pts + Rebs 24.5 Over +160 ✓ HIT
27 Mar 26 Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers Rebounds — — — Pending
27 Mar 26 Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
27 Mar 26 Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers Points — — — Pending

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About This Player

James Harden (Cleveland Cavaliers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for James Harden is Under 4.5 on 3-Pointers. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +26.2% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday 8 April at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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