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The latest Bet Better model pick for Evan Mobley is Under 22.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 81%, versus the book's implied 51%, for a model edge of +30.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
NBA

Evan Mobley

Cleveland Cavaliers

+30.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Under 22.5 -102 (1.98)
+30.8% Edge
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH · Indoor
Wed 8 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
81.3%
Implied Probability
50.5%
Model Edge
+30.8%
Predicted Value
17.3 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points81.3%—50.5%1.23+30.8%

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AI Analysis

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Evan Mobley (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 22.5 Points (-102)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Cleveland Cavaliers face off against the Atlanta Hawks, all eyes will be on Evan Mobley. However, the smart play here is to bet the under on his points total at 22.5. In his last five games, Mobley has averaged just 19.8 points, and at home, that drops to 16.6. Even against the Hawks, he's only managed 15.8 points per game in their recent matchups. What's telling is that in his last ten home games, he's hit this under in 8 of them, painting a clear picture of his recent struggles to reach those lofty numbers. The expected stat value sits at a modest 17.34, suggesting he may not be the scoring powerhouse many expect. With the Cavaliers looking to spread the ball around and the Hawks offering solid defensive pressure, Mobley's path to hitting the over seems quite narrow.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (26 picks) 65.4% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
100%hit · L10
1.8avg · last 10
L51.6Szn1.2Home1.1Away1.4Best6
1+66%
2+33%
3+18%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.8 · hi 3 · lo 1
3113222121

Evan Mobley is averaging 1.8 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.2, best 6). He clears 1+ in 66% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
2.2avg · last 10
L51.6Szn3.0Home3.4Away2.7Best8
1+95%
3+56%
5+19%
7+6%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 2.2 · hi 7 · lo 0
7211312401

Evan Mobley is averaging 2.2 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.0, best 8). He clears 3+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Blocks2024-25 · formNo line posted
0.9avg · last 10
L51.4Szn1.5Home1.5Away1.5Best8
1+76%
2+46%
3+24%
4+5%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 0.9 · hi 3 · lo 0
1000120302

Evan Mobley is averaging 0.9 blocks over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.5, best 8). He clears 2+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
17.4avg · last 10
L517.8Szn18.2Home18.1Away18.3Best41
8+93%
13+83%
18+53%
23+20%
28+6%
Game log vs O 17.5avg 17.4 · hi 24 · lo 9
2116920191720181024

Evan Mobley is averaging 17.4 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 18.2, best 41). He clears 18+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
19.6avg · last 10
L519.4Szn21.2Home21.5Away21.0Best43
11+89%
16+81%
21+53%
26+26%
31+9%
Game log vs O 20.5avg 19.6 · hi 28 · lo 10
28181021221822221025

Evan Mobley is averaging 19.6 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 21.2, best 43). He clears 21+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
26.1avg · last 10
L527.0Szn27.3Home27.4Away27.2Best51
17+88%
22+80%
27+54%
32+30%
37+11%
Game log vs O 26.5avg 26.1 · hi 35 · lo 15
33261626252430311535

Evan Mobley is averaging 26.1 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 27.3, best 51). He clears 27+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
28.3avg · last 10
L528.6Szn30.3Home30.7Away29.9Best53
20+88%
25+79%
30+55%
35+34%
40+13%
Game log vs O 29.5avg 28.3 · hi 40 · lo 15
40281727282532351536

Evan Mobley is averaging 28.3 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 30.3, best 53). He clears 30+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
8.7avg · last 10
L59.2Szn9.1Home9.3Away8.9Best19
5+93%
7+78%
9+59%
11+36%
13+14%
Game log vs O 8.5avg 8.7 · hi 13 · lo 5
121076671013511

Evan Mobley is averaging 8.7 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 9.1, best 19). He clears 9+ in 59% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
10.9avg · last 10
L510.8Szn12.1Home12.6Away11.5Best24
6+93%
9+75%
12+60%
15+30%
18+5%
Game log vs O 11.5avg 10.9 · hi 19 · lo 5
191287981217512

Evan Mobley is averaging 10.9 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.1, best 24). He clears 12+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Points 22.5 Under -102 ✓ HIT
08 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Rebs + Asts 18.5 Under -145 ✗ MISS
08 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Rebounds 15.5 Under -125 ✗ MISS
08 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
08 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
08 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pts + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Evan Mobley (Cleveland Cavaliers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 65.4% on tracked Evan Mobley picks. The latest model pick for Evan Mobley is Under 22.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +30.8% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday 8 April at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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