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The latest Bet Better model pick for Evan Mobley is Under 37.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On the Points + Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 94%, versus the book's implied 51%, for a model edge of +43.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 6:55AM UTC
NBA

Evan Mobley

Cleveland Cavaliers

+43.2% Edge
🔥 3 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Under 37.5 -105 (1.95) · $100→$195
+43.2% Edge
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH · Indoor
Wed 8 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.5%
Implied Probability
51.3%
Model Edge
+43.2%
Predicted Value
26.5 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs94.5%51.3%1.06+43.2%

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AI Analysis

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Evan Mobley (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 37.5 Points + Rebounds (-105)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Cleveland Cavaliers gear up to face the Atlanta Hawks, all eyes should be on Evan Mobley, but not for the reasons you might think. While Mobley has shown flashes of brilliance, his recent production suggests a more subdued performance might be on the horizon. Averaging just 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds over his last five games, he's fallen short of the 37.5 mark we're targeting. In fact, when playing at home, he's only managed 16.6 points and 8.6 rebounds, which simply doesn't stack up against this line. Historically, he's averaged 15.8 points and 11.6 boards against the Hawks at home, but that still keeps him comfortably under our target. With a hit rate of 10/10 at home and a recent trend favoring the under, the smart play here is to back Mobley to stay under 37.5 total points and rebounds.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
100%hit · L10
1.8avg · last 10
L51.6Szn1.2Home1.1Away1.4Best6
1+66%
2+33%
3+18%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.8 · hi 3 · lo 1
3113222121

Evan Mobley is averaging 1.8 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.2, best 6). He clears 1+ in 66% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
2.2avg · last 10
L51.6Szn3.0Home3.4Away2.7Best8
1+95%
3+56%
5+19%
7+6%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 2.2 · hi 7 · lo 0
7211312401

Evan Mobley is averaging 2.2 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.0, best 8). He clears 3+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Blocks2024-25 · formNo line posted
0.9avg · last 10
L51.4Szn1.5Home1.5Away1.5Best8
1+76%
2+46%
3+24%
4+5%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 0.9 · hi 3 · lo 0
1000120302

Evan Mobley is averaging 0.9 blocks over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.5, best 8). He clears 2+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
17.4avg · last 10
L517.8Szn18.2Home18.1Away18.3Best41
8+93%
13+83%
18+53%
23+20%
28+6%
Game log vs O 17.5avg 17.4 · hi 24 · lo 9
2116920191720181024

Evan Mobley is averaging 17.4 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 18.2, best 41). He clears 18+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
19.6avg · last 10
L519.4Szn21.2Home21.5Away21.0Best43
11+89%
16+81%
21+53%
26+26%
31+9%
Game log vs O 20.5avg 19.6 · hi 28 · lo 10
28181021221822221025

Evan Mobley is averaging 19.6 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 21.2, best 43). He clears 21+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
26.1avg · last 10
L527.0Szn27.3Home27.4Away27.2Best51
17+88%
22+80%
27+54%
32+30%
37+11%
Game log vs O 26.5avg 26.1 · hi 35 · lo 15
33261626252430311535

Evan Mobley is averaging 26.1 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 27.3, best 51). He clears 27+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
28.3avg · last 10
L528.6Szn30.3Home30.7Away29.9Best53
20+88%
25+79%
30+55%
35+34%
40+13%
Game log vs O 29.5avg 28.3 · hi 40 · lo 15
40281727282532351536

Evan Mobley is averaging 28.3 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 30.3, best 53). He clears 30+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
8.7avg · last 10
L59.2Szn9.1Home9.3Away8.9Best19
5+93%
7+78%
9+59%
11+36%
13+14%
Game log vs O 8.5avg 8.7 · hi 13 · lo 5
121076671013511

Evan Mobley is averaging 8.7 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 9.1, best 19). He clears 9+ in 59% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
10.9avg · last 10
L510.8Szn12.1Home12.6Away11.5Best24
6+93%
9+75%
12+60%
15+30%
18+5%
Game log vs O 11.5avg 10.9 · hi 19 · lo 5
191287981217512

Evan Mobley is averaging 10.9 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.1, best 24). He clears 12+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Mar 26 Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers 3-Pointers 0.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
01 Mar 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets Blocks 1.5 Under -108 ✓ HIT
28 Feb 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons 3-Pointers 0.5 Over -185 ✓ HIT
28 Feb 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons Blocks Pending
22 Feb 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Blocks Pending

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About This Player

Evan Mobley (Cleveland Cavaliers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Evan Mobley is currently on a 3-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Evan Mobley is Under 37.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +43.2% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday 8 April at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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