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The latest Bet Better model pick for Evan Mobley is Under 37.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On the Points + Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 94%, versus the book's implied 51%, for a model edge of +43.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 8:50AM UTC
NBA

Evan Mobley

Cleveland Cavaliers

+43.2% Edge
🔥 3 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Under 37.5 -105 (1.95) · $100→$195
+43.2% Edge
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH · Indoor
Wed 8 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.5%
Implied Probability
51.3%
Model Edge
+43.2%
Predicted Value
26.5 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs94.5%51.3%1.06+43.2%

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AI Analysis

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Evan Mobley (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 37.5 Points + Rebounds (-105)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Cleveland Cavaliers gear up to face the Atlanta Hawks, all eyes should be on Evan Mobley, but not for the reasons you might think. While Mobley has shown flashes of brilliance, his recent production suggests a more subdued performance might be on the horizon. Averaging just 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds over his last five games, he's fallen short of the 37.5 mark we're targeting. In fact, when playing at home, he's only managed 16.6 points and 8.6 rebounds, which simply doesn't stack up against this line. Historically, he's averaged 15.8 points and 11.6 boards against the Hawks at home, but that still keeps him comfortably under our target. With a hit rate of 10/10 at home and a recent trend favoring the under, the smart play here is to back Mobley to stay under 37.5 total points and rebounds.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Evan Mobley — 2024-25 season averages

Over 80 games in the 2024-25 season, Evan Mobley averaged 18.2 points, 9.1 rebounds and 3.0 assists in 30.4 minutes per game, shooting 56.1% from the field and 37.8% from three-point range.

18.2
PPG
9.1
RPG
3.0
APG
0.9
SPG
1.5
BPG
30.4
MPG
56.1%
FG%
37.8%
3P%

Evan Mobley — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Evan Mobley has played 31.6 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

31.6
MPG (L5)
17.8
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Evan Mobley — points hit rate

Evan Mobley has scored over 15.5 points in 44% of 64 career games.

o11.570%
o12.563%
o15.544%
o20.513%

Evan Mobley — home vs away scoring

At home Evan Mobley averages 18.1 points per game; on the road, 18.3. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

18.1
PPG at home
18.3
PPG on the road

Evan Mobley — scoring by opponent

Evan Mobley scores most against the ATL, averaging 17.7 points per game in that matchup.

17.7
ATL
17.5
BKN
17.3
WSH
17.2
IND
17.1
CHA
16.5
CHI

Evan Mobley — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Evan Mobley has averaged 17.4 points, 8.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 Mayvs IND3724111
11 May@ IND271050
9 May@ IND3518134
4 Mayvs IND3620102
28 Apr@ MIA231771
26 Apr@ MIA321963
23 Aprvs MIA342061
20 Aprvs MIA33971
11 Apr@ NY3516102
8 Aprvs CHI2921127
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Mar 26 Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers 3-Pointers 0.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
01 Mar 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets Blocks 1.5 Under -108 ✓ HIT
28 Feb 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons 3-Pointers 0.5 Over -185 ✓ HIT
28 Feb 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons Blocks Pending
22 Feb 26 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Blocks Pending

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About This Player

Evan Mobley (Cleveland Cavaliers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Evan Mobley is currently on a 3-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Evan Mobley is Under 37.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +43.2% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday 8 April at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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