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The latest Bet Better model pick for Collin Sexton is Under 25.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 90%, versus the book's implied 52%, for a model edge of +38.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 5:09PM UTC
NBA

Collin Sexton

Chicago Bulls

+38.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Under 25.5 -106 (1.94)
+38.2% Edge
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards
Capital One Arena, Washington, DC · Indoor
Tue 7 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
89.7%
Implied Probability
51.5%
Model Edge
+38.2%
Predicted Value
16.7 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs89.7%—51.5%1.11+38.2%

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AI Analysis

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Collin Sexton (Chicago Bulls) Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds (-106)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As we look ahead to Tuesday's matchup between the Chicago Bulls and the Washington Wizards, Collin Sexton's performance raises some eyebrows. Aiming for under 25.5 combined points and rebounds seems to be the smart play. Over his last five outings, Sexton's averaging 20.2 points and just 3.6 rebounds, indicating he's been more of a scorer than a facilitator lately. When he's on the road, those numbers dip slightly to 20.6 points and just 2 rebounds-he's clearly found it tougher to make an impact away from home. Historical trends back this up, too; in his last 20 games, he's hit the under 15 times, showcasing a clear pattern. Against the Wizards, his points average against them is a modest 17.6, suggesting he might struggle to reach that magic number. Given these factors, betting the under on Sexton feels like a solid move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
20.1avg · last 10
L521.4Szn18.4Home16.7Away19.9Best42
8+95%
13+87%
18+59%
23+24%
28+5%
Game log vs O 17.5avg 20.1 · hi 30 · lo 10
18301015212018272715

Collin Sexton is averaging 20.1 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 18.4, best 42). He clears 18+ in 59% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
24.1avg · last 10
L525.4Szn22.6Home20.4Away24.6Best47
13+92%
18+81%
23+56%
28+27%
33+6%
Game log vs O 22.5avg 24.1 · hi 33 · lo 12
23331220262222303320

Collin Sexton is averaging 24.1 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 22.6, best 47). He clears 23+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
21.9avg · last 10
L523.2Szn21.1Home19.2Away22.8Best47
11+92%
16+83%
21+52%
26+29%
31+6%
Game log vs O 20.5avg 21.9 · hi 32 · lo 10
21321018222118303215

Collin Sexton is averaging 21.9 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 21.1, best 47). He clears 21+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
25.9avg · last 10
L527.2Szn25.3Home22.9Away27.5Best52
15+92%
20+81%
25+56%
30+32%
35+10%
Game log vs O 24.5avg 25.9 · hi 38 · lo 12
26351223272322333820

Collin Sexton is averaging 25.9 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 25.3, best 52). He clears 25+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
1.8avg · last 10
L51.8Szn2.7Home2.5Away2.9Best10
1+94%
3+51%
5+14%
7+2%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 1.8 · hi 5 · lo 0
3203110350

Collin Sexton is averaging 1.8 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.7, best 10). He clears 3+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
5.8avg · last 10
L55.8Szn6.9Home6.2Away7.6Best17
1+100%
4+86%
7+48%
10+14%
13+11%
Game log vs O 6.5avg 5.8 · hi 11 · lo 2
85286346115

Collin Sexton is averaging 5.8 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 6.9, best 17). He clears 7+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs 25.5 Under -106 ✓ HIT
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Pts + Asts 26.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Points 22.5 Under -116 ✓ HIT
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Rebounds — — — Pending

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About This Player

Collin Sexton (Chicago Bulls) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Collin Sexton is Under 25.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +38.2% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Bulls vs Washington Wizards on Tuesday 7 April at Capital One Arena, Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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