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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Collin Sexton is Under 25.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 87%, versus the book's implied 51%, for a model edge of +36.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
NBA

Collin Sexton

Chicago Bulls

+36.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Under 25.5 -104 (1.96)
+36.4% Edge
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards
Capital One Arena, Washington, DC · Indoor
Tue 7 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
87.4%
Implied Probability
51.0%
Model Edge
+36.4%
Predicted Value
17.6 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs87.4%51.0%1.14+36.4%

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AI Analysis

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Collin Sexton (Chicago Bulls) Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds (-104)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Chicago Bulls gear up to face the Washington Wizards, all eyes are on Collin Sexton, but there's a compelling case to back the under on his points and rebounds combined at 25.5. Recent trends reveal that Sexton has averaged 20.6 points and just 2 rebounds on the road, which indicates he's not quite hitting that magic number. Moreover, against the Wizards, he's managed only 18.5 points away in their last few matchups, with rebounding numbers hovering around 2.5. When you factor in his overall hit rate-15 out of 20 in his last 20 games-it's clear that while he can light it up, consistency on the boards has been lacking, especially in hostile territory. With the Wizards' defense tightening up, it seems like a prime opportunity for Sexton to fall short of that 25.5 mark. This game could see him struggle to find his rhythm, making the under a savvy play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
20.1avg · last 10
L521.4Szn18.4Home16.7Away19.9Best42
8+95%
13+87%
18+59%
23+24%
28+5%
Game log vs O 17.5avg 20.1 · hi 30 · lo 10
18301015212018272715

Collin Sexton is averaging 20.1 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 18.4, best 42). He clears 18+ in 59% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
24.1avg · last 10
L525.4Szn22.6Home20.4Away24.6Best47
13+92%
18+81%
23+56%
28+27%
33+6%
Game log vs O 22.5avg 24.1 · hi 33 · lo 12
23331220262222303320

Collin Sexton is averaging 24.1 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 22.6, best 47). He clears 23+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
21.9avg · last 10
L523.2Szn21.1Home19.2Away22.8Best47
11+92%
16+83%
21+52%
26+29%
31+6%
Game log vs O 20.5avg 21.9 · hi 32 · lo 10
21321018222118303215

Collin Sexton is averaging 21.9 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 21.1, best 47). He clears 21+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
25.9avg · last 10
L527.2Szn25.3Home22.9Away27.5Best52
15+92%
20+81%
25+56%
30+32%
35+10%
Game log vs O 24.5avg 25.9 · hi 38 · lo 12
26351223272322333820

Collin Sexton is averaging 25.9 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 25.3, best 52). He clears 25+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
1.8avg · last 10
L51.8Szn2.7Home2.5Away2.9Best10
1+94%
3+51%
5+14%
7+2%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 1.8 · hi 5 · lo 0
3203110350

Collin Sexton is averaging 1.8 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.7, best 10). He clears 3+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
5.8avg · last 10
L55.8Szn6.9Home6.2Away7.6Best17
1+100%
4+86%
7+48%
10+14%
13+11%
Game log vs O 6.5avg 5.8 · hi 11 · lo 2
85286346115

Collin Sexton is averaging 5.8 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 6.9, best 17). He clears 7+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs 25.5 Under -104 ✓ HIT
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs 26.5 Under -108 ✓ HIT
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs + Asts 29.5 Under -104 ✗ MISS
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Rebounds Pending
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Pts + Asts Pending
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs + Asts Pending

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About This Player

Collin Sexton (Chicago Bulls) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Collin Sexton is Under 25.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +36.4% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Bulls vs Washington Wizards on Tuesday 7 April at Capital One Arena, Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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