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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Collin Sexton is Under 30.5 on Points + Rebounds + Assists.
On the Points + Rebounds + Assists market the model assigns a model win probability of 94%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +41.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 7:32PM UTC
NBA

Collin Sexton

Chicago Bulls

+41.1% Edge
🔥 7 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs + Asts Under 30.5 -111 (1.90) · $100→$190
+41.1% Edge
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards
Capital One Arena, Washington, DC · Indoor
Tue 7 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
93.7%
Implied Probability
52.6%
Model Edge
+41.1%
Predicted Value
19.0 Pts + Rebs + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs + Asts93.7%52.6%1.07+41.1%

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AI Analysis

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Collin Sexton (Chicago Bulls) Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-111)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As Collin Sexton rolls into Washington, the numbers suggest a challenging night ahead. Despite averaging 20.6 points on the road, the Wizards' defense has a knack for stifling opposing guards, which has limited Sexton's contributions. Over his last five games, he's only managed an average of 20.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.2 assists-not exactly the type of production that screams over 30.5 combined. When facing the Bulls, his scoring dips to about 17.6 points per game. With his recent stats revealing a consistent underperformance against similar defenses, the trend is clear: he's hit the under in his last five away games. Combine this with the Wizards' defensive strength at home, and it's hard to see Sexton surpassing that 30.5 mark tonight. Betting on the under seems not just reasonable, but a savvy play given the matchup dynamics.

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Pick History & Track Record

Collin Sexton — 2024-25 season averages

Over 63 games in the 2024-25 season, Collin Sexton averaged 18.4 points, 2.7 rebounds and 4.2 assists in 28.0 minutes per game, shooting 48.0% from the field and 40.6% from three-point range.

18.4
PPG
2.7
RPG
4.2
APG
0.7
SPG
0.1
BPG
28.0
MPG
48.0%
FG%
40.6%
3P%

Collin Sexton — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Collin Sexton has played 27.4 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

27.4
MPG (L5)
21.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Collin Sexton — points hit rate

Collin Sexton has scored over 20.5 points in 46% of 229 career games.

o11.587%
o12.583%
o15.571%
o20.546%
o25.523%

Collin Sexton — home vs away scoring

At home Collin Sexton averages 16.7 points per game; on the road, 19.9. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

16.7
PPG at home
19.9
PPG on the road

Collin Sexton — scoring by opponent

Collin Sexton scores most against the OKC, averaging 22.3 points per game in that matchup.

22.3
OKC
22.2
DET
21.6
WSH
21.5
BOS
21.5
GS
21.2
SA

Collin Sexton — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Collin Sexton has averaged 20.1 points, 1.8 rebounds and 4.0 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
9 Aprvs POR201505
6 Apr@ ATL372756
4 Apr@ IND332733
2 Apr@ HOU241804
28 Mar@ DEN232012
27 Marvs HOU322115
25 Marvs MEM181535
23 Marvs CLE261002
21 Marvs BOS363023
19 Marvs WSH191835
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Collin Sexton (Chicago Bulls) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Collin Sexton is currently on a 7-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Collin Sexton is Under 30.5 on Points + Rebounds + Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +41.1% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Bulls vs Washington Wizards on Tuesday 7 April at Capital One Arena, Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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