Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Marcus Smart is Under 4.5 on Assists.
On the Assists market the model assigns a model win probability of 81%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +20.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 9:00AM UTC
NBA

Marcus Smart

Los Angeles Lakers

+20.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Assists Under 4.5 -154 (1.65) · $100→$165
+20.6% Edge
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA · Indoor
Sun 19 Apr, 12:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
81.2%
Implied Probability
60.6%
Model Edge
+20.6%
Predicted Value
2.9 Assists

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Assists81.2%60.6%1.23+20.6%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Marcus Smart (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 4.5 Assists (-154)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Lakers prepare to host the Rockets, Marcus Smart's assist total is one to keep an eye on, particularly if you're considering the under on 4.5. While Smart has averaged a solid 5.2 assists over his last five games, his recent performances against Houston tell a different story. He's only managed 2 assists per game in their last matchup, and even at home, his average dips slightly to 4.8. The numbers indicate a strong trend; he's hit the under in 15 of his last 18 games overall, and 15 out of 20 at home. Given the Lakers' defensive schemes and the way they can disrupt passing lanes, it's plausible that Smart finds it tough to dish out assists against a feisty Rockets team. With an expected stat value of just 2.93, this is a ripe opportunity to take the under on Smart's assists.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Marcus Smart — 2024-25 season averages

Over 34 games in the 2024-25 season, Marcus Smart averaged 9.0 points, 2.1 rebounds and 3.2 assists in 20.0 minutes per game, shooting 39.3% from the field and 34.8% from three-point range.

9.0
PPG
2.1
RPG
3.2
APG
1.1
SPG
0.3
BPG
20.0
MPG
39.3%
FG%
34.8%
3P%

Marcus Smart — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Marcus Smart has played 17.6 minutes per game and started 20% of them.

17.6
MPG (L5)
8.4
PPG (L5)
20%
Started

Marcus Smart — points hit rate

Marcus Smart has scored over 11.5 points in 39% of 610 career games.

o11.539%
o12.533%
o15.519%

Marcus Smart — home vs away scoring

At home Marcus Smart averages 9.1 points per game; on the road, 8.9. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

9.1
PPG at home
8.9
PPG on the road

Marcus Smart — scoring by opponent

Marcus Smart scores most against the GS, averaging 15.2 points per game in that matchup.

15.2
GS
15.1
DAL
14.4
BKN
13.0
MIA
12.6
LAL
12.5
CLE

Marcus Smart — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Marcus Smart has averaged 9.5 points, 2.2 rebounds and 3.0 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
3 Aprvs ORL251230
31 Marvs MIA20412
29 Marvs BKN7312
24 Marvs TOR12621
22 Mar@ NY241743
19 Mar@ UTAH14004
13 Mar@ DET241547
11 Mar@ DET211622
8 Mar@ TOR18914
5 Marvs UTAH181345
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers 3-Pointers 1.5 Under -101 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Assists Pending
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Asts Pending
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Rebs + Asts Pending
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Asts Pending
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Points Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Marcus Smart (Los Angeles Lakers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Marcus Smart is Under 4.5 on Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.6% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday 19 April at Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.