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The latest Bet Better model pick for Marcus Smart is Under 18.5 on Pts + Rebs + Asts.
On the Pts + Rebs + Asts market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 52%, for a model edge of +20.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:02PM UTC
NBA

Marcus Smart

Los Angeles Lakers

+20.1% Edge
🔥 3 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs + Asts Under 18.5 -108 (1.93)
+20.1% Edge
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA · Indoor
Sun 19 Apr, 12:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.9%
Implied Probability
51.8%
Model Edge
+20.1%
Predicted Value
14.1 Pts + Rebs + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs + Asts71.9%—51.8%1.39+20.1%

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AI Analysis

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Marcus Smart (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-108)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Lakers host the Rockets, targeting Marcus Smart for under 18.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists feels like the right move. Looking at Smart's recent form, he's averaging just 6.2 points over his last five games, with a slight uptick to 9 at home. However, those numbers don't tell the whole story; against Houston, he's managed only 7 points per game. Rebounds are another concern, as he's pulling down an average of 2.6, with a modest 1.6 against the Rockets. Assists, where he's usually a bit more active, have dropped to 5.2 overall and a mere 2 against this specific opponent. With the recent trend showing he's hit the under in 10 of his last 12 home games, it's hard to envision him eclipsing that 18.5 mark tonight. This one feels like a solid bet for the under as the Lakers look to assert

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
1.5avg · last 10
L51.4Szn1.4Home1.5Away1.4Best11
1+71%
2+35%
3+21%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.5 · hi 4 · lo 0
3023041002

Marcus Smart is averaging 1.5 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.4, best 11). He clears 1+ in 71% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
3.0avg · last 10
L51.6Szn3.2Home3.3Away3.1Best15
1+97%
3+53%
5+29%
7+6%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 3 · hi 7 · lo 0
5427431220

Marcus Smart is averaging 3.0 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.2, best 15). He clears 3+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
9.5avg · last 10
L58.4Szn9.0Home9.1Away8.9Best37
4+79%
9+56%
14+21%
19+3%
Game log vs O 8.5avg 9.5 · hi 17 · lo 0
139161501763412

Marcus Smart is averaging 9.5 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 9.0, best 37). He clears 9+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
12.5avg · last 10
L510.0Szn12.2Home12.4Away12.0Best45
2+97%
7+76%
12+53%
17+26%
22+12%
Game log vs O 11.5avg 12.5 · hi 22 · lo 4
1813182242075612

Marcus Smart is averaging 12.5 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.2, best 45). He clears 12+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
14.7avg · last 10
L512.2Szn14.3Home14.4Away14.2Best50
4+94%
9+76%
14+47%
19+29%
24+12%
Game log vs O 13.5avg 14.7 · hi 26 · lo 4
2214202642496715

Marcus Smart is averaging 14.7 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 14.3, best 50). He clears 14+ in 47% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
5.2avg · last 10
L53.8Szn5.3Home5.3Away5.4Best21
2+100%
5+44%
8+26%
11+9%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 5.2 · hi 11 · lo 3
95411473333

Marcus Smart is averaging 5.2 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.3, best 21). He clears 5+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Rebs + Asts 18.5 Under -108 ✗ MISS
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers 3-Pointers 1.5 Under -108 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Asts 15.5 Under -109 ✗ MISS
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Assists — — — Pending
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Marcus Smart (Los Angeles Lakers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Marcus Smart is currently on a 3-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Marcus Smart is Under 18.5 on Pts + Rebs + Asts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.1% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday 19 April at Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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