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The latest Bet Better model pick for Yordan Alvarez is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +26.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 23, 4:56AM UTC
MLB

Yordan Alvarez

HOU

+26.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -127 (1.79)
+26.0% Edge
Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros
Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas · Indoor
Sat 18 Jul, 12:10AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
81.9%
Implied Probability
55.9%
Model Edge
+26.0%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases81.9%—55.9%1.22+26.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Yordan Alvarez (HOU) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-127)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Houston Astros square off against the Baltimore Orioles, keep an eye on Yordan Alvarez’s total bases prop, particularly the under at 1.5. Sure, Alvarez is a powerhouse, but recent trends suggest he may be contained in this matchup. The Orioles’ pitching staff has been surprisingly effective against left-handed hitters, boasting a .220 average allowed over the last month. Moreover, with the Orioles' bullpen ranking among the top in strikeout rates, they can neutralize power threats like Alvarez effectively. His last few games have shown a dip in production, hitting safely in just two of his last six outings. With the Astros' lineup needing to face some tough righties, it might not be the slugfest fans expect. Considering all of this, going under on Alvarez's total bases feels like a savvy play in this intriguing matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2050%
O 0.550%

Yordan Alvarez MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.510%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%

Yordan Alvarez MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Yordan Alvarez MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2050%
O 0.550%
O 1.530%

Yordan Alvarez MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.510%

Yordan Alvarez MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%
O 1.510%

Yordan Alvarez MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -127 ✗ MISS
08 Jul 26 Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -222 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -196 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Yordan Alvarez is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +26.0% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros on Saturday 18 July at Minute Maid Park, Houston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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