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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Walker Buehler is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 90%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +29.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:35PM UTC
MLB

Walker Buehler

MLB

+29.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Under 2.5 -154 (1.65) · $100→$165
+29.9% Edge
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona · Indoor
Fri 7 Aug, 1:40AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
90.5%
Implied Probability
60.6%
Model Edge
+29.9%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks90.5%60.6%1.11+29.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Walker Buehler Under 2.5 Walks Allowed (-154)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Walker Buehler Under 2.5 Walks Allowed (-154). That is a Walks Allowed bet. It was priced at -154 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.49 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak5L2086%
O 2.580%
O 3.540%
O 4.530%
O 5.520%
O 6.530%
O 7.520%

Walker Buehler MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak33L20100%
O 2.5100%
O 3.580%
O 4.560%
O 5.540%
O 6.520%
O 7.510%
O 8.510%

Walker Buehler MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak4L2090%
O 0.590%
O 1.540%
O 2.530%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%

Walker Buehler MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
16.6avg outs · L5
L2057%

Walker Buehler MLB outs: averaging 16.6 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Aug 26 San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks Pitcher - Walks 2.5 Under -154 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks Pitcher - Earned Runs 2.5 Under -128 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Hits Allowed 4.5 Under +119 ✗ MISS
02 Aug 26 San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Earned Runs Pending

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About This Player

Walker Buehler is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Walker Buehler is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +29.9% on this pick. Their next game is San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday 7 August at Chase Field, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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