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The latest Bet Better model pick for Walker Buehler is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 86%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +25.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
MLB

Walker Buehler

MLB

+25.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Under 5.5 -154 (1.65)
+25.7% Edge
San Diego Padres @ Boston Red Sox
Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts · Outdoor
Sun 5 Apr, 5:35PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
86.3%
Implied Probability
60.6%
Model Edge
+25.7%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed86.3%60.6%1.16+25.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Walker Buehler (NA) Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-154)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Red Sox host the Padres, all eyes will be on Walker Buehler, whose recent form is nothing short of impressive. He’s been a master at limiting hits, consistently keeping opponents off balance with his sharp arsenal. Over his last few starts, Buehler has allowed fewer than five hits per game, showcasing his ability to navigate tough lineups effectively. The Padres, while boasting power, have struggled to consistently string together hits, particularly against right-handed pitchers like Buehler. With a below-average batting average in the last couple of weeks, they may find it difficult to capitalize on Buehler's offerings. When you blend Buehler’s current form and the Padres’ inconsistencies, it’s reasonable to expect him to hold them under that 5.5 hits threshold. As the game unfolds, don’t be surprised if Buehler puts on a clinic, keeping the hits manageable and giving us a strong case for the 'Under.'

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak5L2075%
O 2.590%
O 3.570%
O 4.550%
O 5.540%
O 6.530%
O 7.520%

Walker Buehler MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak33L20100%
O 2.5100%
O 3.580%
O 4.560%
O 5.530%
O 6.530%
O 7.510%
O 8.510%

Walker Buehler MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak4L2090%
O 0.590%
O 1.540%
O 2.530%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%

Walker Buehler MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
2.6avg earned runs · L5
L2055%

Walker Buehler MLB earned runs: averaging 2.6 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
16.6avg outs · L5
Streak4L2065%

Walker Buehler MLB outs: cleared over 14.5 in 90% of the last 10 games; averaging 16.6 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Walker Buehler is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Walker Buehler is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +25.7% on this pick. Their next game is San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox on Sunday 5 April at Fenway Park, Boston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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