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The latest Bet Better model pick for Spencer Strider is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 97%, versus the book's implied 94%, for a model edge of +2.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
MLB

Spencer Strider

ATL

+2.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -1667 (1.06)
+2.4% Edge
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
Nationals Park, Washington, District of Columbia · Outdoor
Mon 15 Sep, 10:45PM
OUT
Strider (elbow) will have a follow-up appointment with Dr. Keith Meister next week and may also be scheduled for an MRI, Chad Bishop of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
updated Jul 18, 12:54PM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
96.7%
Implied Probability
94.3%
Model Edge
+2.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed96.7%—94.3%1.03+2.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Spencer Strider (ATL) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Spencer Strider for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is a solid choice based on his recent performance data. Strider has consistently allowed above 2.5 hits in his last five games, with an average of 5.6 overall hits allowed and 4.6 when playing away. His pitching also tends to last around 5 innings, providing ample opportunity for hits. Furthermore, his current hit streak is at 10 overall and 16 for away games, suggesting a strong pattern of hits allowed. His performance against the Nationals is also consistent, with an average of 4.2 hits allowed in the last five games. This data indicates a high likelihood of Strider allowing over 2.5 hits in the upcoming game against the Nationals.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.540%
O 3.520%
O 4.510%
O 5.513%

Spencer Strider MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak10L2095%
O 2.5100%
O 3.580%
O 4.550%
O 5.540%
O 6.520%

Spencer Strider MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak5L2090%
O 0.590%
O 1.550%
O 2.520%

Spencer Strider MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
3.2avg earned runs · L5

Spencer Strider MLB earned runs: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 3.2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
14.8avg outs · L5
L2065%

Spencer Strider MLB outs: averaging 14.8 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Spencer Strider (ATL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Spencer Strider is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals on Monday 15 September at Nationals Park, Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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