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The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Corbin is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 84%, versus the book's implied 77%, for a model edge of +7.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
MLB

Patrick Corbin

TEX

+7.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Over 2.5 -333 (1.30)
+7.2% Edge
Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri · Outdoor
Thu 21 Aug, 6:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
84.2%
Implied Probability
76.9%
Model Edge
+7.2%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts84.2%—76.9%1.19+7.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Patrick Corbin (TEX) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-333)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Patrick Corbin's performance data indicates a strong tendency towards achieving more than 2.5 strikeouts per game. His last five games show an average of 3.4 strikeouts overall and 4.2 when playing away. This trend is even more pronounced against the Kansas City Royals, with an average of 4.5 strikeouts. Additionally, his innings pitched (IP) and outs averages suggest he's on the mound long enough to achieve the required strikeouts. His IP averages are 4.7 overall, 4.9 away, and 5.6 against the Royals, while his outs averages are 14.4 overall, 15 away, and 17.5 against the Royals. These stats suggest Corbin is consistently delivering performances that would win this bet. His current hit streaks, both overall and away, further support this trend. Therefore, betting on Corbin to achieve over 2.5 strikeouts is a sound choice based on his recent performance data.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak5L2050%
O 2.570%
O 3.520%
O 4.520%
O 5.510%

Patrick Corbin MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak8L2095%
O 2.590%
O 3.580%
O 4.570%
O 5.550%
O 6.540%
O 7.520%

Patrick Corbin MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak6L2080%
O 0.590%
O 1.540%
O 2.510%

Patrick Corbin MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
3avg earned runs · L5
L2060%

Patrick Corbin MLB earned runs: averaging 3 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
14.4avg outs · L5
L2050%

Patrick Corbin MLB outs: cleared over 16.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 14.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Patrick Corbin (TEX) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Corbin is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.2% on this pick. Their next game is Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals on Thursday 21 August at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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