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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Pivetta is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On Pitcher - Hits Allowed, our numbers say this bet wins about 96 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 96%, implied 83%, edge +12.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 3.50 SOlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 2.50 SOlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 3.50 SOlanded 10 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Aug 31, 9:22PM UTC
MLB

Nick Pivetta

SDP

+12.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -500 (1.20) · $100→$120
+12.4% Edge
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois · Outdoor
Tue 30 Sep, 7:08PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 935 of 1,976 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
Pivetta (forearm) struck out seven and allowed two hits and one walk over 4.1 scoreless innings in a rehab start with Triple-A El Paso on Sunday.
updated Aug 31, 12:40AM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
96 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 95.7% · the book's price implies 83.3% · gap +12.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed95.7%—83.3%1.04+12.4%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Nick Pivetta (SDP) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Nick Pivetta for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is a solid choice based on his recent performance data. Pivetta has consistently allowed more than 2.5 hits in his last five games, with an average of 3.2 hits overall and 5.2 hits in away games. His innings pitched and outs averages also suggest a higher likelihood of exceeding the 2.5 hits line. Specifically, he's averaged 5 innings pitched and 15.4 outs in away games, providing ample opportunity for hits. His performance against the Cubs further supports this bet, as he's averaged 5 hits allowed in his last five games against them. Despite his current hit streak being at zero, his historical data strongly indicates a probability of allowing more than 2.5 hits in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Nick Pivetta is averaging 3.2 hits, 0.2 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

3.2
Hits
0.2
HR
0.0
RBI
0.8
Runs
1.4
Walks
6.0
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Nick Pivetta has gone over 2.5 SO in 90% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o2.590%
o3.5100%
o4.570%
o5.570%
o6.520%
o7.520%
o8.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Nick Pivetta is averaging 3.2 hits per game over his last 5 and 5.2 in away games, including his recent form against CHC.

3.2
Hits · Overall
5.2
Hits · Away
5.0
Hits · vs CHC
0.2
HR · Overall
1.2
HR · Away
0.5
HR · vs CHC
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nick Pivetta (SDP) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Pivetta is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.4% on this pick. Their next game is San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs on Tuesday 30 September at Wrigley Field, Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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