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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Pivetta is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 96%, versus the book's implied 83%, for a model edge of +12.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:17PM UTC
MLB

Nick Pivetta

SDP

+12.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -500 (1.20) · $100→$120
+12.4% Edge
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois · Outdoor
Tue 30 Sep, 7:08PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
OUT
The Padres have decided to put Pivetta's (forearm) rehab progression on pause "for a couple extra days" after he was removed from his appearance with Single-A Lake Elsinore on Tuesday midway through the first inning, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
updated Aug 7, 7:18PM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
95.7%
Implied Probability
83.3%
Model Edge
+12.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed95.7%—83.3%1.04+12.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Nick Pivetta (SDP) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Nick Pivetta for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is a solid choice based on his recent performance data. Pivetta has consistently allowed more than 2.5 hits in his last five games, with an average of 3.2 hits overall and 5.2 hits in away games. His innings pitched and outs averages also suggest a higher likelihood of exceeding the 2.5 hits line. Specifically, he's averaged 5 innings pitched and 15.4 outs in away games, providing ample opportunity for hits. His performance against the Cubs further supports this bet, as he's averaged 5 hits allowed in his last five games against them. Despite his current hit streak being at zero, his historical data strongly indicates a probability of allowing more than 2.5 hits in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak4L2090%
O 2.590%
O 3.5100%
O 4.570%
O 5.570%
O 6.520%
O 7.520%
O 8.510%

Nick Pivetta MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak4L2090%
O 1.590%
O 2.580%
O 3.570%
O 4.550%
O 5.510%

Nick Pivetta MLB hits allowed: cleared over 1.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak2L2070%
O 0.580%
O 1.540%
O 2.530%

Nick Pivetta MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.8avg earned runs · L5
L2055%

Nick Pivetta MLB earned runs: averaging 0.8 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
18avg outs · L5
Streak3L2075%

Nick Pivetta MLB outs: cleared over 14.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 18 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nick Pivetta (SDP) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Pivetta is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.4% on this pick. Their next game is San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs on Tuesday 30 September at Wrigley Field, Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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