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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Pivetta is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 98%, versus the book's implied 95%, for a model edge of +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
MLB

Nick Pivetta

SDP

+4.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 1.5 -2000 (1.05)
+4.0% Edge
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois · Outdoor
Tue 30 Sep, 7:08PM
OUT
Pivetta (forearm) will throw a live batting practice session this week, Annie Heilbrunn of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
updated Jul 20, 10:40PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
98.2%
Implied Probability
95.2%
Model Edge
+4.0%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed98.2%—95.2%1.02+4.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Nick Pivetta (SDP) Over 1.5 Hits Allowed (-2000)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Nick Pivetta's recent performance, particularly in away games, supports the bet for Over 1.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market. Over the last five games, Pivetta has averaged 5.2 hits allowed when playing away and even higher, 6 hits, when facing the Cubs. His innings pitched and outs averages also drop while playing away, further indicating a higher likelihood of conceding hits. Additionally, he's on a 9-game streak of allowing more than 1.5 hits in away games, showing a consistent pattern of this outcome. Despite his overall hits allowed average being 3.2, his performance specifically against the Cubs and in away games makes this bet statistically sound.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak4L2090%
O 2.590%
O 3.5100%
O 4.570%
O 5.570%
O 6.520%
O 7.520%
O 8.510%

Nick Pivetta MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak4L2090%
O 1.590%
O 2.580%
O 3.570%
O 4.550%
O 5.510%

Nick Pivetta MLB hits allowed: cleared over 1.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak2L2070%
O 0.580%
O 1.540%
O 2.530%

Nick Pivetta MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.8avg earned runs · L5
L2055%

Nick Pivetta MLB earned runs: averaging 0.8 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
18avg outs · L5
Streak3L2075%

Nick Pivetta MLB outs: cleared over 14.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 18 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nick Pivetta (SDP) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Pivetta is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs on Tuesday 30 September at Wrigley Field, Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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