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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lars Nootbaar is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits.
On the Batter - Hits market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +21.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
MLB

Lars Nootbaar

STL

+21.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits Under 1.5 -204 (1.49)
+21.9% Edge
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels
Angel Stadium, Anaheim, California · Outdoor
Wed 22 Jul, 1:38AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
89.0%
Implied Probability
67.1%
Model Edge
+21.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits89.0%—67.1%1.12+21.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Lars Nootbaar (STL) Under 1.5 Hits (-204)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Angels host the Cardinals, all eyes should be on Lars Nootbaar's performance at the plate. Despite his potential, recent trends suggest that keeping him under 1.5 hits might be the play here. He’s been inconsistent lately, managing just a .225 average in his last 15 games, and facing the Angels' lefty specialist will only complicate matters. Moreover, Nootbaar has struggled against left-handed pitchers, hitting just .208 this season against them. The Angels' bullpen has been formidable at home, boasting a 3.50 ERA and a WHIP under 1.20, making it tough for hitters to find their rhythm late in games. Considering all these factors, especially his current form and the matchups, betting the under seems like a savvy move. Expect a quieter night at the plate for Nootbaar, making that under 1.5 hits worth a closer look.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

6 markets live
Batter - HitsUpcoming vs LAAU 1.5 -204+21.9% edge
80%hit L10
L2090%

Lars Nootbaar MLB hits: cleared under 1.5 in 80% of the last 10 games vs LAA. Current line U 1.5 at -204 (+21.9% model edge).

Batter - Total BasesUpcoming vs LAAU 1.5 -204+8.7% edge
70%hit L10
L2070%

Lars Nootbaar MLB total bases: cleared under 1.5 in 70% of the last 10 games vs LAA. Current line U 1.5 at -204 (+8.7% model edge).

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsUpcoming vs LAAU 2.5 -135+23.9% edge
70%hit L10
L2070%

Lars Nootbaar MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared under 2.5 in 70% of the last 10 games vs LAA. Current line U 2.5 at -135 (+23.9% model edge).

Batter - Runs ScoredUpcoming vs LAAU 1.5 -385+9.6% edge
90%hit L10
L2095%

Lars Nootbaar MLB runs scored: cleared under 1.5 in 90% of the last 10 games vs LAA. Current line U 1.5 at -385 (+9.6% model edge).

Batter - SinglesUpcoming vs LAAU 1.5 -385+15.2% edge
90%hit L10
Streak7L2095%

Lars Nootbaar MLB singles: cleared under 1.5 in 90% of the last 10 games vs LAA. Current line U 1.5 at -385 (+15.2% model edge).

Batter - WalksUpcoming vs LAAU 0.5 -208+14.2% edge
80%hit L10
Streak4L2085%

Lars Nootbaar MLB walks: cleared under 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games vs LAA. Current line U 0.5 at -208 (+14.2% model edge).

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Lars Nootbaar MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.510%

Lars Nootbaar MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Stolen BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg stolen bases · L5

Lars Nootbaar MLB stolen bases: averaging 0.2 stolen bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Lars Nootbaar MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Walks 0.5 Under -714 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Lars Nootbaar (STL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lars Nootbaar is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +21.9% on this pick. Their next game is St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday 22 July at Angel Stadium, Anaheim. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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