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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lars Nootbaar is Over 0.5 on Batter - Walks.
On Batter - Walks, our numbers say this bet wins about 33 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 33%, implied 35%, edge +7.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 0.50 hits runs rbislanded 7 of the last 10
Under 1.50 2Blanded 10 of the last 10
Under 1.50 hits runs rbislanded 8 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 11, 1:48AM UTC
MLB

Lars Nootbaar

STL

+7.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Walks Over 0.5 +187 (2.87) · $100→$287
+7.1% Edge
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri · Outdoor
Wed 9 Sep, 11:40PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb batter home runs overs: 26 of 140 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
42 in 100
Predicted
0.5 Batter - Walks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 42.0% · the book's price implies 34.8% · gap +7.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Walks42.0%33.0%34.8%2.95+7.1%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 Batter - Walks (+187)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Lars Nootbaar has been a bit quiet at the plate lately, averaging just 0.3 hits per game over his last three outings. However, today he faces a left-handed pitcher, which could help him get on base. The Arizona Diamondbacks have a solid track record against lefties, and Nootbaar's chances for walks look promising. The Royals have struggled to score lately, averaging 0.6 runs behind in their last twelve games. Still, with Nootbaar's ability to draw walks and the Diamondbacks' weaker pitching against left-handed batters, I think there's a good chance he could walk at least once today. The main risk is that he hasn't been hitting well recently, but the matchup gives him a real shot to surprise us.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Lars Nootbaar is averaging 0.6 hits, 0.2 home runs and 0.8 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

0.6
Hits
0.2
HR
0.8
RBI
0.4
Runs
0.6
Walks
0.8
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Hits Runs Rbis

Lars Nootbaar has gone over 0.5 hits runs rbis in 70% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o0.570%
o1.520%
o2.510%
o3.50%
o4.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Lars Nootbaar is averaging 0.6 hits per game over his last 5 and 0.6 in away games, including his recent form against CHC.

0.6
Hits · Overall
0.6
Hits · Away
0.4
Hits · vs CHC
0.2
HR · Overall
0.2
HR · Away
0.0
HR · vs CHC
Quick answers:How many home runs does Lars Nootbaar hit?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Walks 0.5 Over +187 ✓ HIT
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Runs Scored 0.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - RBIs 0.5 Under -250 ✓ HIT
09 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Runs Scored — — — Pending
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs — — — Pending
08 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Hits — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lars Nootbaar (STL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lars Nootbaar is Over 0.5 on Batter - Walks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.1% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals on Wednesday 9 September at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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