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The latest Bet Better model pick for Kodai Senga is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 96%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +7.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:18PM UTC
MLB

Kodai Senga

NYM

+7.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -769 (1.13)
+7.8% Edge
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Citi Field, Queens (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Sun 31 Aug, 5:40PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
96.2%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+7.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed96.2%—88.5%1.04+7.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Kodai Senga (NYM) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-769)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Kodai Senga for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is backed by several consistent statistics. Senga's last five games reveal an average of 3.4 hits allowed overall, and specifically 3 at home, both above the betting line. His performance against the Marlins also supports this bet, with an average of 4.2 hits allowed in the last five encounters. Also, his current hit streak, both overall and at home, stands at 4 games, indicating a trend of allowing more than 2.5 hits per game. These figures, combined with his average innings pitched and outs, suggest a high likelihood of Senga allowing over 2.5 hits in the upcoming game against the Marlins, making this bet a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2071%
O 1.570%
O 2.550%
O 3.520%
O 4.514%

Kodai Senga MLB strikeouts: cleared over 1.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak4L2080%
O 2.580%
O 3.550%
O 4.530%
O 5.510%
O 6.510%

Kodai Senga MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak24L20100%
O 0.5100%
O 1.580%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%

Kodai Senga MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
0.8avg earned runs · L5
L2067%

Kodai Senga MLB earned runs: cleared over 1.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 0.8 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
16.8avg outs · L5

Kodai Senga MLB outs: cleared over 16.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 16.8 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Kodai Senga (NYM) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kodai Senga is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.8% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Marlins vs New York Mets on Sunday 31 August at Citi Field, Queens (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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