Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kodai Senga is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 60%, for a model edge of +11.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:23PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Under 3.5
-147 (1.68) · $100→$168
+11.8% Edge
Miami Marlins
@
New York Mets
Citi Field, Queens (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Fri 31 Jul, 11:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Implied Probability
59.5%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Hits Allowed | 71.3% | — | 59.5% | 1.40 | +11.8% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 3/3 |
| Last 5 games | 5/5 |
| Last 10 games | 10/10 |
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Kodai Senga Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (-147)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
New York Mets play Miami Marlins in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Kodai Senga Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (-147). That is a Hits Allowed bet. It was priced at -147 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formPitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.570%
O 2.543%
O 3.514%
O 4.510%
Kodai Senga MLB strikeouts: cleared over 1.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted O 2.580%
O 3.560%
O 4.530%
O 5.510%
O 6.520%
Kodai Senga MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted O 0.5100%
O 1.580%
O 2.530%
O 3.510%
Kodai Senga MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted Kodai Senga MLB earned runs: cleared over 1.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted 60%hit L10
16.8avg outs · L5
Streak2L2070%
Kodai Senga MLB outs: cleared over 16.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 16.8 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 31 Jul 26 |
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets |
Pitcher - Hits Allowed |
3.5 |
Under |
-147 |
✓ HIT |
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Kodai Senga is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kodai Senga is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.8% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Marlins vs New York Mets on Friday 31 July at Citi Field, Queens (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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