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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jurickson Profar is Over 0.5 on Batter - Hits.
On the Batter - Hits market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +4.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 7:32PM UTC
MLB

Jurickson Profar

ATL

+4.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits Over 0.5 -208 (1.48) · $100→$148
+4.1% Edge
Seattle Mariners @ Atlanta Braves
Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia · Outdoor
Sun 7 Sep, 4:05PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 559 of 1,032 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
updated May 8, 11:02AM UTC · 95d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.7%
Implied Probability
67.6%
Model Edge
+4.1%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits71.7%67.6%1.40+4.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Jurickson Profar (ATL) Over 0.5 Hits (-208)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Jurickson Profar to have over 0.5 hits is a solid choice, considering his recent performance data. His average hits in the last five games overall and at home are 0.8 and 1 respectively, both higher than the line of 0.5. This indicates a consistent performance. Furthermore, when facing the Mariners, his average hits rises to 1, suggesting he performs well against this particular team. His plate appearances (PA) also remain consistent at 4.2 across all categories, showing he gets ample opportunities to hit. Although his current hit streak is at zero, his averages suggest the likelihood of him getting a hit is high. Therefore, the statistical data supports the bet for Profar to have over 0.5 hits in the game against the Mariners.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Jurickson Profar is averaging 0.8 hits, 0.0 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

0.8
Hits
0.0
HR
0.0
RBI
0.6
Runs
0.4
Walks
0.8
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Total Bases

Jurickson Profar has gone over 1.5 total bases in 10% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.510%
o2.50%
o3.50%
o4.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Jurickson Profar is averaging 0.8 hits per game over his last 5 and 1.0 in home games, including his recent form against WSN.

0.8
Hits · Overall
1.0
Hits · Home
1.2
Hits · vs WSN
0.0
HR · Overall
0.2
HR · Home
0.6
HR · vs WSN
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jurickson Profar (ATL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jurickson Profar is Over 0.5 on Batter - Hits. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves on Sunday 7 September at Truist Park, Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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