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Jesus Luzardo

PHI

+16.5% Edge
Latest Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs Over 1.5 -164 (1.61)
+16.5% Edge
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Mon 6 Oct, 10:08PM
Model Probability
78.6%
Implied Probability
62.1%
Model Edge
+16.5%
Predicted Value

AI Analysis

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Jesus Luzardo (PHI) Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Jesus Luzardo for Over 1.5 in the Pitcher Earned Runs market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Luzardo's average earned runs at home in the last five games is 2.6, which is higher than the line of 1.5. This indicates that when playing at home, Luzardo tends to allow more than 1.5 earned runs. Moreover, despite his overall earned run average being 1.4, his home average is significantly higher, further supporting the bet. Additionally, Luzardo's average innings pitched at home is 6.2, giving ample opportunity for the opposition to score more than 1.5 runs. Although his performance against the Dodgers has been better, with a 1 earned run average, his home statistics suggest a higher probability of conceding over 1.5 runs.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jesus Luzardo (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jesus Luzardo is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.5% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies on Monday 6 October at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.