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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jesus Luzardo is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On the Pitcher - Earned Runs market the model assigns a model win probability of 79%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +16.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:26PM UTC
MLB

Jesus Luzardo

PHI

+16.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs Over 1.5 -164 (1.61) · $100→$161
+16.5% Edge
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Mon 6 Oct, 10:08PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
78.6%
Implied Probability
62.1%
Model Edge
+16.5%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Earned Runs78.6%—62.1%1.27+16.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Jesus Luzardo (PHI) Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Jesus Luzardo for Over 1.5 in the Pitcher Earned Runs market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Luzardo's average earned runs at home in the last five games is 2.6, which is higher than the line of 1.5. This indicates that when playing at home, Luzardo tends to allow more than 1.5 earned runs. Moreover, despite his overall earned run average being 1.4, his home average is significantly higher, further supporting the bet. Additionally, Luzardo's average innings pitched at home is 6.2, giving ample opportunity for the opposition to score more than 1.5 runs. Although his performance against the Dodgers has been better, with a 1 earned run average, his home statistics suggest a higher probability of conceding over 1.5 runs.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak2L2090%
O 2.590%
O 3.580%
O 4.540%
O 5.540%
O 6.530%
O 7.520%
O 8.510%
O 9.510%
O 10.510%

Jesus Luzardo MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak22L20100%
O 1.5100%
O 2.590%
O 3.580%
O 4.570%
O 5.540%
O 6.530%
O 7.520%
O 8.510%

Jesus Luzardo MLB hits allowed: cleared over 1.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2085%
O 0.580%
O 1.560%
O 2.540%
O 3.520%

Jesus Luzardo MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
1.4avg earned runs · L5
L2065%

Jesus Luzardo MLB earned runs: cleared over 1.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 1.4 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
18.2avg outs · L5
Streak4L2065%

Jesus Luzardo MLB outs: cleared over 15.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 18.2 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jesus Luzardo (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jesus Luzardo is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.5% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies on Monday 6 October at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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