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Jesus Luzardo

PHI

Value call

Jesus Luzardo has one live pick today: over 0.5 walks allowed that pays $181 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
52 in 100
Predicted
1.9 walks allowed
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 51.9% · before adjusting for past results 85.2% · the book's price implies 55.2% · gap -3.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia · Outdoor
Tue 29 Sep, 2:00 PM ET
Jesus Luzardo
over 0.5 walks allowed
Pitcher - Walks Over 0.5 -123 (1.81) · $100→$181
Value call
LEANWins about 52 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.10 Odds-123
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jesus Luzardo is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On Pitcher - Walks, our numbers say this bet wins about 52 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 52%, the price says 55%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Oct 14, 9:34PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher outs unders: 143 of 246 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks85.2%51.9%55.2%2.03+30.0%

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AI Analysis

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Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Jesus Luzardo Over 0.5 Pitcher - Walks (-123)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

The Braves are facing the Phillies at Truist Park, and Jesus Luzardo will be on the mound for Philadelphia. Luzardo has been solid at home but tends to get a bit wild, averaging around 0.9 home runs allowed in 10 games. With the Braves' power hitters, it's likely they will put some pressure on him, leading to a few walks. Both teams have struggled lately, winning only two of their last six games. However, Luzardo has a history of giving up earned runs, which suggests he might not have the best command today. Betting on him to walk at least one batter seems like a good choice, especially with how the Braves can swing the bat. Just remember, things can go sideways in baseball!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
29 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves Pitcher - Walks 0.5 Over -123 ✓ HIT
29 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves Pitcher - Strikeouts 1.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
29 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves Pitcher - Earned Runs 0.5 Over -119 ✓ HIT
07 Sep 26 Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies Pitcher - Earned Runs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jesus Luzardo (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jesus Luzardo is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +30.0% on this pick. Their next game is Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves on Tuesday 29 September at Truist Park, Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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