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Casey Mize

DET

Value call

Casey Mize has one live pick today: under 3.5 strikeouts that pays $207 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
43 in 100
Predicted
3.7 strikeouts
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 42.6% · before adjusting for past results 49.9% · the book's price implies 48.3% · gap -5.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego, California · Outdoor
Fri 25 Sep, 9:40 PM ET
Casey Mize
under 3.5 strikeouts
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 3.5 +107 (2.07) · $100→$207
Value call
LEANWins about 43 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$20.70 Odds+107
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Casey Mize is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On Pitcher - Strikeouts, our numbers say this bet wins about 43 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 43%, the price says 48%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Oct 11, 3:47PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher outs unders: 140 of 242 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts49.9%42.6%48.3%2.14+1.6%

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AI Analysis

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Casey Mize (DET) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+107)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Casey Mize (DET) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+107). That is a Strikeouts bet. It was priced at +107 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Strikeouts 3.5 Under +107 ✓ HIT
25 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Earned Runs 1.5 Over -135 ✓ HIT
25 Sep 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Hits Allowed 3.5 Over -164 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Strikeouts — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Walks — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Hits Allowed — — — Pending

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About This Player

Casey Mize (DET) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Casey Mize is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.6% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres on Friday 25 September at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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