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The latest Bet Better model pick for Casey Mize is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On Pitcher - Earned Runs, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 60%, the price says 63%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 0.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 1.50 Hlanded 9 of the last 10
Over 2.50 Hlanded 8 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 21, 8:03AM UTC
MLB

Casey Mize

MLB

Casey Mize has one live pick today: Pitcher - Earned Runs Over 1.5 that pays $160 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs Over 1.5 -167 (1.60) · $100→$160
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego, California · Outdoor
Sun 20 Sep, 12:40AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts overs: 164 of 342 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
60 in 100
Predicted
2.9 Pitcher - Earned Runs
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 60.3% · before adjusting for past results 53.8% · the book's price implies 62.5% · gap -2.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Earned Runs53.8%60.3%62.5%1.67-8.7%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins: Casey Mize Over 1.5 Pitcher - Earned Runs (-167)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

The San Diego Padres are on a hot streak, winning 9 of their last 10 games and scoring about 1.1 runs more than their opponents in recent matchups. They've shown they can hit well against left-handed pitchers, so facing Casey Mize could be a challenge for him. Plus, with the wind blowing out toward the outfield tonight, it's likely to help hitters even more. Betting on Casey Mize to give up over 1.5 earned runs makes sense here. The Marlins' home runs are less frequent at loanDepot park, but Mize has been on the mound against a strong hitting team. The biggest risk is that Mize could surprise everyone and keep the runs down, but the Padres are in great form right now.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Casey Mize is averaging 3.6 hits, 0.6 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

3.6
Hits
0.6
HR
0.0
RBI
1.6
Runs
1.8
Walks
3.6
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: H

Casey Mize has gone over 0.5 H in 100% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o0.5100%
o1.590%
o2.580%
o3.570%
o4.550%
o5.540%
o6.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Casey Mize is averaging 3.6 hits per game over his last 5 and 3.8 in home games.

3.6
Hits · Overall
3.8
Hits · Home
0.6
HR · Overall
0.4
HR · Home
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Sep 26 Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Earned Runs 1.5 Over -167 ✓ HIT
20 Sep 26 Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Strikeouts 4.5 Under -141 ✓ HIT
20 Sep 26 Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Outs 15.5 Over +140 ✗ MISS
20 Sep 26 Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Hits Allowed — — — Pending
20 Sep 26 Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Walks — — — Pending
20 Sep 26 Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Earned Runs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Casey Mize is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Casey Mize is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a slight edge of -8.7% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres on Sunday 20 September at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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