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Model picks & player props
Milwaukee Brewers
VS
St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 6, 2:06PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Outdoor
Thu 9 Jul 2026, 11:45PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 6.5 (Total Runs)
For Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals (MLB), model win probability 43.8%, fair odds 2.28, book price +200, model edge +10.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 9 Jul 2026, 11:45PM at Busch Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Under
6.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Kyle Harrison SPDay-to-day
  • Jake Bauers 1BDay-to-day
  • JoJo Romero RPOut
  • Sal Frelick RFOut
  • Joel Kuhnel RPOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Kyle Harrison SP

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Jordan Walker RFDay-to-day
  • Ramon Urias 3BOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut

Probable pitcher

Andre Pallante SP
Availability updated Aug 6, 1:15AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSt. Louis CardinalsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Milwaukee Brewers L53-2

St. Louis Cardinals moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.2 runs/gm.

Run LineSt. Louis Cardinals run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Milwaukee Brewers L53-2

St. Louis Cardinals spread form: last five 2-3, 2.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee BrewersNo line posted

St. Louis Cardinals total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSt. Louis Cardinals team totalNo line posted
2.3runs we expect
L5 RF2.2L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Milwaukee Brewers L53-2

St. Louis Cardinals team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.2 runs/gm.

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games St. Louis Cardinals are scoring 3.6 runs per game (4-1) while Milwaukee Brewers are at 4.8 (3-2); St. Louis Cardinals pitchers are allowing 1.8 earned runs per game versus 1.6 for Milwaukee Brewers.

3.6
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
4.8
Milwaukee Brewers runs/G
Last 5 gamesSt. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers
Runs / game3.64.8
Hits / game4.05.6
Home runs / game0.40.4
Walks drawn / game0.81.6
Batter K / game2.44.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.81.6
Pitching K / game5.02.4
Walks allowed / game2.21.0
L5 record4-13-2

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Sal Frelick. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers stats and odds.</p>

Sal Frelick (MIL) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-208)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Cardinals host the Brewers, all eyes will be on Sal Frelick, but taking the under on his total bases feels like the savvy play here. While Frelick has shown flashes of talent, he’s struggled against the Cardinals’ pitching staff lately. St. Louis has been adept at limiting opposing hitters, especially at home, where their bullpen has been particularly stingy. Frelick’s recent form also suggests a dip; in his last few matchups against right-handed pitchers, he’s managed to scrape together less than 1.5 total bases consistently. With the Cardinals’ ace on the mound and their defense tightening up at Busch Stadium, Frelick may find it tough to find gaps or power through the lineup. Given the circumstances, betting the under on 1.5 total bases feels like a wise move as the Cards look to stifle Milwaukee's offense.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers : Under 8.5 Total Runs (-109)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cardinals host the Brewers on July 9th, a classic pitchers' duel is on the horizon, making the 'Under 8.5' total runs a compelling wager. Both teams have been trending toward lower-scoring affairs lately, with St. Louis averaging just over three runs per game in their last week, while Milwaukee's bats have sputtered, often finding themselves struggling against strong pitching. Diving into the matchup, the Cardinals' starter has shown impressive form at home, boasting a sub-3.00 ERA and an ability to keep hitters off balance. Meanwhile, the Brewers' lineup has faced a barrage of quality arms recently, which has led to a dip in their run production. With both bullpens also holding up well, especially in tight contests, it feels like runs will be at a premium. Expect a tightly contested game that likely ends well under that 8.5 mark.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers : Under 7.5 Total Runs (+120)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cardinals prepare to host the Brewers, we might see a classic pitchers' duel unfold. Both teams have showcased their strength on the mound lately, with St. Louis boasting a solid 3.75 ERA at home. Their ace has been particularly effective, racking up strikeouts while limiting hard contact, which has been a boon for the Cardinals' defense. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s lineup has struggled against lefties, which bodes well for the Cardinals’ southpaw on the hill. The Brewers' recent trend of underwhelming offensive production is hard to ignore, especially when they’ve averaged just 3.5 runs per game over their last week. With the total set at 7.5, the evidence leans heavily toward the Under. Given both teams' current form and the pitching matchups, expect a tight game where runs come at a premium. This clash could very well end in a low-scoring affair, making the Under a compelling bet.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers : Under 8.5 Total Runs (-120)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cardinals host the Brewers this July, we’re looking at a matchup that screams “under” for total runs. The Brewers have been struggling offensively lately, averaging just 3.5 runs over their past week. This dip is coupled with their inability to hit against right-handed pitchers, which bodes well for St. Louis’s starter, who’s been effective at home. On the flip side, the Cardinals' lineup, while potent, has seen its share of ups and downs. They’re also up against a Brewers pitching staff that has quietly solidified, highlighted by their recent outings where they’ve limited opponents to an average of just 2.8 runs in their last five games. With both teams trending toward the under and a total set at 8.5, expect a tightly contested game where runs are at a premium. This matchup feels like it’s destined for a low-scoring affair.

Christian Yelich (MIL) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-172)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Cardinals gear up to face the Brewers, all eyes will be on Christian Yelich and his quest for total bases. However, recent trends suggest he might struggle to clear the 1.5 mark. Over his last ten games, Yelich has shown signs of inconsistency, hitting just .220 with an on-base percentage dipping below .300. Pair that with the Cardinals' pitching staff, particularly their ace, who has been lights out at home, boasting a sub-3.00 ERA and a strikeout rate that has ballooned to 30% against left-handed batters. Yelich, being a lefty, may find himself challenged in this environment. With the Brewers’ recent offensive struggles and Yelich's underwhelming performance against tough pitching, taking the ‘Under’ on his total bases feels like a savvy move. Expect a game where he finds it hard to connect, keeping his bases low and the Cardinals in control.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers : Under 9.5 Total Runs (-185)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cardinals and Brewers face off on July 9, the trend lines are pointing toward a pitched battle, not a slugfest. St. Louis has been leaning heavily on their bullpen, which has a sparkling 3.15 ERA over the last month, while Milwaukee’s pitching staff isn't far behind, boasting a 3.50 ERA during the same stretch. Both teams have struggled at the plate lately, with the Cardinals averaging just 3.8 runs per game in their last ten. Their previous encounters have seen low-scoring affairs, and with the stakes high in this divisional matchup, we can expect both starters to rise to the occasion. When you factor in the line set at 9.5, it feels ripe for an 'Under' play. Given the current form of both pitching staffs and the recent struggles of the hitters, taking the Under here seems like a wise bet for Thursday night.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
5
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
09 Jul 26 Spread Milwaukee Brewers -2.5 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Spread Milwaukee Brewers -3.5 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Spread Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Spread Milwaukee Brewers -4.5 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 6.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Brewers vs Cardinals, or as Cardinals vs Brewers. The most recent game between them was Thursday 9 July 2026 at Busch Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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