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Model picks & player props
Arizona Diamondbacks
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 6:53PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Sun 12 Apr 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game Picks
5
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Philadelphia Phillies -2.5 (Spread)
For Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB), model win probability 32.4%, fair odds 3.09, book price +240, model edge +3.0%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Apr 2026, 5:35PM at Citizens Bank Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Philadelphia Phillies
-2.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Drey Jameson RPOut
  • Zac Gallen SPOut
  • Justin Martinez RPOut
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Jordan Lawlar LFOut
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Michael Soroka SPOut
  • Tommy Troy LFOut
  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut
  • Blake Walston SPOut

Probable pitcher

Kohl Drake SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Garrett Stubbs COut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Lou Trivino RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Zack Wheeler SP
Availability updated Jul 22, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Zac Gallen ARI Pitcher - Earned Runs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Trea Turner LAD Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bryce Harper PHI Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Andrew Painter Pitcher - Earned Runs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jose Fernandez Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.8L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs Arizona Diamondbacks L52-3Win rec0-12

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.8 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.8L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs Arizona Diamondbacks L52-3ATS2-15

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 2-3, 3.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona DiamondbacksNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
2.9implied team total
L5 RF3.8L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs Arizona Diamondbacks L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.8 runs/gm.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 2.0 runs per game (1-4) while Arizona Diamondbacks are at 4.8 (4-1); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 3.0 earned runs per game versus 2.2 for Arizona Diamondbacks.

2.0
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
4.8
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesArizona Diamondbacks
Runs / game2.04.8
Hits / game4.04.8
Home runs / game0.60.0
Walks drawn / game1.02.0
Batter K / game4.03.6
Earned runs allowed / game3.02.2
Pitching K / game3.03.6
Walks allowed / game1.01.4
L5 record1-44-1

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Jose Fernandez. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks stats and odds.</p>

Jose Fernandez (NA) Over 0.5 Hits (-182)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Jose Fernandez (NA) Over 0.5 Hits (-182)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks : Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+150)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
7
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
12 Apr 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -2.5 ✗ MISS
12 Apr 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -3.5 ✗ MISS
12 Apr 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Spread Arizona Diamondbacks 1 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Spread Arizona Diamondbacks -3 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Spread Arizona Diamondbacks -3.5 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Spread Arizona Diamondbacks -2 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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