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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zac Gallen is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On the Pitcher - Earned Runs market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 66%, for a model edge of +29.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 20, 3:40AM UTC
MLB

Zac Gallen

MLB

+29.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs Under 4.5 -196 (1.51)
+29.2% Edge
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego, California · Outdoor
Thu 9 Jul, 2:10AM
OUT
Manager Torey Lovullo said Thursday that Gallen is awaiting a second opinion on his injured right elbow, Alex D'Agostino of SI.com reports.
updated Jul 17, 2:24AM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
95.4%
Implied Probability
66.2%
Model Edge
+29.2%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Earned Runs95.4%—66.2%1.05+29.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Zac Gallen (NA) Under 4.5 Earned Runs (-196)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks, all eyes will be on their ace, Zac Gallen. Over his last few starts, Gallen has been nothing short of sensational, consistently limiting opposing batters. His ability to mix pitches and keep hitters off balance has led to a remarkable stretch where he’s allowed just a few earned runs per game. The Padres, despite their offensive firepower, have struggled to capitalize against elite pitching lately, averaging only 3.8 runs in their last ten games. The stakes are high, and with Gallen’s recent form and the Padres' offensive woes, betting on him to stay under 4.5 earned runs feels like a smart play. This matchup is set up for Gallen to shine, as he capitalizes on the Padres’ current struggles, making the 'Under' a compelling choice as he aims to silence the San Diego bats.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak2L2090%
O 2.590%
O 3.590%
O 4.580%
O 5.550%
O 6.550%
O 7.530%

Zac Gallen MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak5L2080%
O 2.570%
O 3.560%
O 4.550%

Zac Gallen MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak3L2075%
O 1.580%
O 2.540%

Zac Gallen MLB walks: cleared over 1.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2050%

Zac Gallen MLB earned runs: cleared over 2.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
16.4avg outs · L5
Streak2

Zac Gallen MLB outs: cleared over 17.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 16.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Zac Gallen is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zac Gallen is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +29.2% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres on Thursday 9 July at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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