As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday, Max Kepler's matchup piques interest, but backing the under on his total bases seems wise. Kepler has been struggling lately, hitting just .220 over his last 15 games, and his inconsistency at the plate raises red flags.
The Diamondbacks' pitching staff has been formidable at home, boasting a 3.50 ERA, which makes it difficult for opposing hitters to find their rhythm. Furthermore, Kepler has faced Diamondbacks’ ace, who has a knack for inducing weak contact.
Add in the fact that the Cardinals have seen their offense sputter in recent games, averaging just 3.5 runs over their last five outings, and the likelihood of Kepler racking up those 1.5 total bases seems slim. With the odds favoring the under, it’s hard to see Kepler breaking through in this tough matchup.
Ketel Marte (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-278)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the St. Louis Cardinals, all eyes will be on Ketel Marte, but betting on him to exceed 1.5 total bases feels risky. Marte has been a streaky hitter lately, often finding himself mired in inconsistency. Against left-handed pitching, which the Cardinals will throw at him, he’s struggled to find his rhythm, batting a mere .235 this season.
Moreover, the Cardinals' pitching staff has been surprisingly effective, particularly in recent outings. They’ve held opponents to a low OPS, stifling big hits and keeping games low-scoring. With Marte facing a tough southpaw, it’s worth noting his recent games against lefties have resulted in minimal production. Given Arizona’s challenges at the plate and the Cardinals' solid pitching, the ‘Under 1.5’ on Marte's total bases feels like the prudent play here. Sometimes, it’s not just about the player but the narrative unfolding on the diamond.
Alec Burleson (NA) Under 1.5 Runs Scored (-588)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Diamondbacks prepare to host the Cardinals, Alec Burleson’s recent performance suggests that betting the under on his runs scored may be the play here. Arizona has been solid on the mound lately, particularly with their starting pitcher limiting hard contact and keeping opposing hitters off balance. Burleson, while showing flashes of potential, has struggled to find consistent form against right-handed pitching, hitting just .230 in these matchups this season. With a stellar Diamondbacks bullpen backing up their starter, runs are likely to be at a premium.
Additionally, St. Louis has been grappling with offensive inconsistencies, particularly in away games. This combination of factors points toward Burleson facing a tough road ahead to cross home plate. With an implied probability of 85.5% for the under, the numbers back up the intuition that this could be a quiet day for Burleson at the plate.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals : Over 8.5 Total Runs (+110)
Odds available at NA at time of publishing
As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the St. Louis Cardinals, the stage is set for a high-scoring showdown. Both teams have shown a knack for putting runs on the board lately. The Diamondbacks, with a lineup that thrives against right-handed pitching, have averaged over five runs per game in their last ten outings. Meanwhile, the Cardinals boast a powerful offense, particularly in clutch situations, making them dangerous every time they step to the plate.
On the mound, both starters have had their ups and downs; while the D-backs’ pitcher can be effective, he’s prone to giving up the long ball, which the Cardinals will be eager to exploit. Given the recent trends and the firepower on display, the over on 8.5 runs appears enticing. This matchup has all the ingredients for a run-fest, and I wouldn't be surprised to see both teams push this total well beyond the line.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals : Arizona Diamondbacks +1 (-135)
Odds available at NA at time of publishing
As the Arizona Diamondbacks take the field against the St. Louis Cardinals, there’s a palpable energy in the air, especially with the D-backs’ recent surge. Arizona’s bats are igniting, boasting a .270 team average over the last month, with key hitters like Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll stepping up. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ pitching staff has shown vulnerability, allowing a concerning 5.2 runs per game lately.
On the mound, Arizona’s starter has been a revelation, with a 3.20 ERA that’s kept opposing hitters guessing. The D-backs thrive at home, where they’ve been particularly formidable, boasting a run differential that suggests they’re more than capable of covering a one-run line.
With St. Louis struggling to find consistent offense and the Diamondbacks riding a wave of confidence, backing Arizona to cover the alternate run line feels like a savvy move. Expect them to assert their dominance and deliver a solid performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals : Over 8.5 Total Runs (+106)
Odds available at NA at time of publishing
As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals, we’re looking at a matchup that screams "runs." Both teams have shown a penchant for offense lately, with the D-backs boasting a lineup that’s been racking up hits and runs at a sizzling pace. Over the last few weeks, they’ve consistently pushed totals above the 8.5 mark, thanks to a blend of power and speed that puts pressure on opposing pitchers.
On the flip side, the Cardinals' bats are no slouches either; they’ve been finding their rhythm, particularly against right-handed pitching. With both lineups capable of exploiting each other’s weaknesses, it’s hard to see this game staying under. Combine that with the fact that each team’s bullpen has struggled at times this season, and we’re set for a potential slugfest. Grab the 'Over 8.5'—this one feels like it’s destined for double digits.