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Model picks & player props
Milwaukee Brewers
VS
Boston Red Sox

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 8:48AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Wed 8 Apr 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Milwaukee Brewers -2.5 Spread +255

The model graded 22 markets for Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $355 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 8 Apr 2026, 5:35PM at Fenway Park.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win35.3%
The price says28.2%
Best price+255
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Milwaukee Brewers -2.5 Long-shot35% chance +255
Spread Long-shot27% chance
Moneyline Lean50% chance
Total Runs High60% chance
Spread Long-shot24% chance
Spread Long-shot28% chance
Total Runs Lean42% chance
Spread Long-shot36% chance
Total Runs Long-shot38% chance
Batter - Hits × 1 prop Highup to 74%
Batter - Total Bases × 1 prop Highup to 76%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Milwaukee Brewers and Boston Red Sox last met on Wed 8 Apr 2026. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Milwaukee Brewers
-3.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Jake Bauers 1BDay-to-day
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Grant Anderson RPOut
  • Bryse Wilson RPOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Logan Henderson SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Willson Contreras 1BOut
  • Adley Rutschman CDay-to-day
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Ceddanne Rafaela CFOut
  • Tyron Guerrero RPOut
  • Eduardo Rivera SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut

Probable pitcher

Jake Bennett SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Roman Anthony Batter - Hits
Caleb Durbin Batter - Total Bases

+ 2 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L54-1Free board11-10

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 4-1, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L54-1

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 4-1, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee BrewersNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 4-1, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
2.1runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L54-1

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 4-1, 2.8 runs/gm.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox — 20 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox — recent results

Boston Red Sox have won 3 of their last 5 games; Milwaukee Brewers have won 3 of their last 5.

Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6LAAHome
L1–6LAAHome
W5–2LAAHome
W3–1BALAway
W5–0BALAway
Milwaukee Brewers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W8–6CHCHome
W4–3CHCHome
W4–3CHCHome
L8–12CINAway
L3–5CINAway

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Boston Red Sox are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while Milwaukee Brewers are at 4.8 (4-1); Boston Red Sox pitchers are allowing 3.0 earned runs per game versus 2.6 for Milwaukee Brewers.

4.0
Boston Red Sox runs/G
4.8
Milwaukee Brewers runs/G
Last 5 gamesBoston Red SoxMilwaukee Brewers
Runs / game4.04.8
Hits / game3.84.2
Home runs / game0.40.0
Walks drawn / game1.64.0
Batter K / game2.45.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.02.6
Pitching K / game3.84.0
Walks allowed / game3.05.6
L5 record3-24-1

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Boston Red Sox won 2, Milwaukee Brewers won 1.

DateBoston Red SoxMilwaukee BrewersWinner
Apr 850Boston Red Sox
Apr 732Boston Red Sox
Apr 668Milwaukee Brewers

Who’s out or in doubt

22 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Willson Contreras 1BOUT
Adley Rutschman CDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Kutter Crawford SPOUT
Johan Oviedo SPOUT
Ceddanne Rafaela CFOUT
Milwaukee Brewers
PlayerStatus
Jake Bauers 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Rob Zastryzny RPOUT
Grant Anderson RPOUT
Bryse Wilson RPOUT
Brandon Woodruff SPOUT
Brian Fitzpatrick RPOUT
Quinn Priester SPOUT
Angel Zerpa RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers. Includes analysis on key players like Roman Anthony. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers stats and odds.

Roman Anthony (NA) Over 0.5 Hits (-175)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Red Sox gear up to face the Brewers, all eyes should be on Roman Anthony to come through with at least one hit. This young phenom has been making waves in the lineup, showcasing a keen eye and impressive bat control. The Brewers' pitching staff, while solid, has struggled against left-handed hitters, an area where Anthony thrives. Given that he’s been racking up solid at-bats lately, it’s hard to overlook his potential to contribute early and often. The Red Sox are riding a wave of offensive momentum, having scored in bunches lately, and with Anthony typically at the top of the order, he’ll see plenty of opportunities against a Milwaukee pitching rotation that’s been inconsistent. With a model prediction suggesting nearly a 64% chance he’ll notch a hit, betting on him to go over 0.5 hits feels like a smart play in this matchup.

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Brewers vs Sox, or as Sox vs Brewers. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 8 April 2026 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 12 meetings on record
Milwaukee Brewers 7–5 across the last 12 meetings · these games average 8.4 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
8 Apr 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox5–0Boston Red Sox
7 Apr 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox3–2Boston Red Sox
6 Apr 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox6–8Milwaukee Brewers
28 May 2025Boston Red Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers6–5Milwaukee Brewers
27 May 2025Boston Red Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers5–1Milwaukee Brewers
26 May 2025Boston Red Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers3–2Milwaukee Brewers
26 May 2024Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox2–1Boston Red Sox
25 May 2024Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox3–6Milwaukee Brewers
24 May 2024Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox2–7Milwaukee Brewers
23 Apr 2023Boston Red Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers5–12Boston Red Sox

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 12 meetings on file.

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