Sam Merrill (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 9.5 Points (-135)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Bucks travel to face the Cavaliers, targeting Sam Merrill for under 9.5 points feels like a savvy move. Merrill has been a bit of a quiet presence lately, averaging just 6.8 points across his last five games and dipping to a mere 3.6 points in away outings. While he's performed decently against Cleveland historically, averaging 10 points, recent trends show a stark contrast. In fact, on the road, he's hitting just 11.2 against this matchup, but with the way the Cavs defend the perimeter, it's tough to see him breaking out. With an impressive 9 of his last 10 games hitting the under, including a perfect 7 for 7 in away games, Merrill's current trajectory suggests he's more likely to stay under the radar than light up the scoreboard. Given the implied probability and expected value, this is a smart play for the savvy bettor ahead of tip-off.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers : Cleveland Cavaliers win (-625)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Cleveland Cavaliers come into this matchup as the clear favorites, and for good reason. They have been consistently performing at a high level, with a model prediction of 0.9 suggesting a strong probability of them taking the win. Their performance in recent games has been commanding, outplaying the Bucks in various key areas. The Bucks, on the other hand, have been struggling to maintain their momentum, which is reflected in the implied probability of 86.2% leaning heavily in favor of the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers' impressive form, coupled with the Bucks' inconsistent performances, makes a bet on the Cavaliers for the Moneyline market a compelling choice. Despite the Bucks' home court advantage, the Cavaliers' superior performance is expected to prevail.

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