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The latest Bet Better model pick for Willem Duursma is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +2.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:29PM UTC
AFL

Willem Duursma

West Coast Eagles

+2.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+2.7% Edge
West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 24 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
73.2%
Implied Probability
70.4%
Model Edge
+2.7%
Predicted Value
18.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.2%—70.4%1.37+2.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Willem Duursma (West Coast Eagles) Over 15.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Willem Duursma for the upcoming clash between the West Coast Eagles and the Fremantle Dockers. Duursma has been a midfield maestro lately, averaging a tidy 18.8 disposals in his last five away games. With a knack for finding space and creating opportunities, he's been a key link in the Eagles' game plan. Facing off against Fremantle, a team he's been known to notch up around 20 disposals against in recent encounters, Duursma is poised to thrive at Optus Stadium. His recent form boasts excellent contested possession and disposal efficiency, making him a reliable bet to surpass the 15.5 disposals line set by the bookies. Duursma's consistent performance and ability to impact the game make him a solid pick for hitting that over. So, when you're eyeing the player disposals market, backing Willem Duursma to go over 15.5 is a smart play with a high probability of success.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 15.5
15.2avg disposals L5
Home17.8vs Collingwood17
O 13.570%
O 14.560%
O 15.550%
O 16.550%
O 17.540%
O 18.540%

Willem Duursma has gone over 15.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 15.2 disposals).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 15.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 14.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 15.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending
03 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending
03 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Willem Duursma (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Willem Duursma is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.7% on this pick. Their next game is West Coast Eagles vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 24 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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