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AFL

Willem Duursma

West Coast Eagles

Value call

Willem Duursma (West Coast Eagles) has one live pick today: over 14.5 disposals that pays $161 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
50 in 100
Predicted
16.8 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 50.2% · before adjusting for past results 67.9% · the book's price implies 62.1% · gap -11.9%.

Latest Model PickFree
Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 23 Aug, 7:20 PM AEST
Willem Duursma
over 14.5 disposals
Disposals Over 14.5 -164 (1.61) · $100→$161
Value call
LEANWins about 50 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$16.10 Odds-164
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Willem Duursma is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 50 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 50%, the price says 62%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 7:20PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals67.9%50.2%62.1%1.99+5.8%

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AI Analysis

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Willem Duursma (West Coast Eagles) Over 14.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing players to shine, Willem Duursma stands out for the upcoming clash at Optus Stadium. His recent form at home has been nothing short of impressive, averaging 18 disposals over the last five games, comfortably exceeding the projected line of 14.5. Duursma's ability to find the footy with precision (59.0% disposal efficiency) and cover ground effectively (299.4 meters gained) makes him a valuable asset in the Eagles' midfield. Moreover, with a hit rate of 8 out of the last 10 home games, Duursma has consistently delivered when playing in front of the Eagles faithful. Facing Hawthorn at home further boosts his chances of hitting the over, especially considering his current streak and overall hit rate. Backing Duursma to surpass 14.5 disposals is a solid play backed by his recent home dominance and consistent performance levels.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Willem Duursma - AFL Disposals market.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Willem Duursma - AFL Goals market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 14.5 Over -164 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 13.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 12.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending
16 Aug 26 West Coast Eagles @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Willem Duursma (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Willem Duursma is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.8% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 23 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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