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The latest Bet Better model pick for Willem Duursma is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +1.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:06PM UTC
AFL

Willem Duursma

West Coast Eagles

+1.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -250 (1.40)
+1.7% Edge
West Coast Eagles @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
73.2%
Implied Probability
71.4%
Model Edge
+1.7%
Predicted Value
18.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.2%—71.4%1.37+1.7%

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AI Analysis

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Willem Duursma (West Coast Eagles) Over 15.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Willem Duursma, the midfield maestro for the West Coast Eagles, is primed to shine in their clash against the Western Bulldogs. Over his last 5 away games, Duursma has been a consistent ball magnet, averaging a stellar 18.8 disposals. His ability to find space and impact the game is evident through his impressive 63.8% disposal efficiency and 428.2 meters gained per game. With an average of 13 kicks and 5.8 handballs in away fixtures, Duursma has shown his versatility and influence all over the ground. Facing the Bulldogs on their turf at Marvel Stadium, Duursma is set to exploit his form and surpass the 15.5 disposal line. Backing Duursma to continue his midfield mastery is a smart play with a high probability of hitting.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Willem Duursma - AFL Disposals market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 15.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 17.5 Over -169 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 16.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
03 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending
03 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Willem Duursma (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Willem Duursma is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is West Coast Eagles vs Western Bulldogs on Sunday 12 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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