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The latest Bet Better model pick for Wil Powell is Under 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 54%, for a model edge of +18.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:36AM UTC
AFL

Wil Powell

Gold Coast SUNS

+18.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 20.5 -116 (1.86)
+18.0% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 21 Mar, 2:15AM
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Model Probability
71.8%
Implied Probability
53.8%
Model Edge
+18.0%
Predicted Value
17.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.8%—53.8%1.39+18.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Wil Powell (Gold Coast SUNS) Under 20.5 Disposals (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the upcoming clash between the Gold Coast Suns and the Richmond Tigers, all eyes are on Wil Powell. Despite his recent strong form, averaging 15.6 disposals over the last five away games, facing a formidable Richmond side at the MCG could put a dent in his numbers. Powell's stats against Richmond indicate he may struggle to hit the 20.5 mark, with an average of 20.3 disposals in his last five games against them. Even though Powell has been solid, turnovers (averaging 5) and contested possessions (averaging 6.2) might trip him up against the Tigers' relentless pressure. Considering the data and the challenging matchup, betting under 20.5 disposals for Powell seems like a smart play for this showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 16.5
16.4avg disposals L5
Home16.6vs Western Bulldogs17.8Season best28
O 14.590%
O 15.570%
O 16.550%
O 17.530%
O 18.520%
O 19.510%
Game log vs line (O 16.5)avg 18.1 · hi 24 · lo 15
22191521191524161515

Wil Powell has gone over 16.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 16.4 disposals, best 28).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Mar 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 20.5 Under -116 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Wil Powell (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Wil Powell is Under 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.0% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Richmond Tigers on Saturday 21 March at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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