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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom McCarthy is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +12.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 7:04PM UTC
AFL

Tom McCarthy

West Coast Eagles

+12.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -159 (1.63) · $100→$163
+12.0% Edge
West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 24 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
73.3%
Implied Probability
61.3%
Model Edge
+12.0%
Predicted Value
23.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.3%—61.3%1.36+12.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Tom McCarthy (West Coast Eagles) Over 20.5 Disposals (-159)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball winners, Tom McCarthy for West Coast is a name that commands attention. His recent form is nothing short of stellar, averaging a healthy 23.4 disposals per game in his last five away matches. But what sets him apart is his consistency; boasting a solid 81.9% disposal efficiency and a penchant for racking up 16.6 kicks and 6.8 handballs on average. Facing off against Fremantle, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 21 disposals in their last five matchups, McCarthy is poised to shine. With a streak of 3 out of 4 away games hitting over 20.5 disposals and an overall hit rate of 5 out of 7, the odds are in his favor to once again surpass the 20.5 disposal mark. Betting on McCarthy to go over 20.5 disposals is not just a wager; it's a calculated move backed by his undeniable form and track record.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 22.5
22.4avg disposals L5
Home22.4vs Collingwood29.5
O 20.570%
O 21.570%
O 22.550%
O 23.540%
O 24.540%
O 25.540%

Tom McCarthy has gone over 22.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 22.4 disposals).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 20.5 Over -159 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 19.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 18.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tom McCarthy (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom McCarthy is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.0% on this pick. Their next game is West Coast Eagles vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 24 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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