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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tim Kelly is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 78%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +10.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 2:13PM UTC
AFL

Tim Kelly

West Coast Eagles

+10.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -204 (1.49)
+10.9% Edge
West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 24 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
78.0%
Implied Probability
67.1%
Model Edge
+10.9%
Predicted Value
24.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals78.0%—67.1%1.28+10.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Tim Kelly (West Coast Eagles) Over 20.5 Disposals (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the upcoming clash between the West Coast Eagles and the Fremantle Dockers, all eyes are on Tim Kelly. His recent form on the road has been nothing short of stellar, averaging 22.4 disposals over the last 5 away games. Facing off against Fremantle, he has historically upped his game, averaging 24.5 disposals in their last 5 encounters. With a current hit streak of 2 on away games and a solid 67.2% disposal efficiency, Kelly is in prime form to not just meet but surpass the 20.5 disposal line. His ability to find space, rack up possessions, and create scoring opportunities make him a strong bet for smashing through that line at Optus Stadium. Trust in Kelly to deliver the goods and snag you a win in the 'Player Disposals Over/Under' market.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 22.5
22.8avg disposals L5
Home22.8vs Collingwood19.8Season best32
O 20.570%
O 21.570%
O 22.560%
O 23.560%
O 24.550%
O 25.540%
Game log vs line (O 22.5)avg 24.5 · hi 32 · lo 15
23152329243231192425

Tim Kelly has gone over 22.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 22.8 disposals, best 32).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 20.5 Over -204 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 19.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 18.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tim Kelly (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tim Kelly is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.9% on this pick. Their next game is West Coast Eagles vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 24 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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