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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tim Kelly is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 84%, versus the book's implied 82%, for a model edge of +1.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:35AM UTC
AFL

Tim Kelly

West Coast Eagles

+1.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -455 (1.22)
+1.5% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
83.5%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+1.5%
Predicted Value
24.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals83.5%—82.0%1.20+1.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Tim Kelly (West Coast Eagles) Over 19.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball-winners, Tim Kelly stands out as a beacon of consistency for the West Coast Eagles. With an average of 25.4 disposals in his last five home games, he's been a midfield maestro, dictating the tempo and driving his team forward. Not only does Kelly rack up possessions, but he does so efficiently, boasting a 74.3% disposal efficiency rate. Facing the Brisbane Lions, against whom he averages 29 disposals in his last five matchups, Kelly thrives under pressure. With the model predicting him to hit 24.3 disposals, comfortably above the line of 19.5, it's not just a bet; it's a solid investment in a player who consistently delivers on the field. Expect Kelly to once again lead the charge and snag those crucial possessions at Optus Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Brisbane LionsO 21.5 -227+2.2% edge
70%hit L10 O 21.5
24.4avg disposals L5
Home25.4vs Brisbane Lions26.5Season best32
O 19.570%
O 20.570%
O 21.570%
O 22.560%
O 23.560%
O 24.550%
Game log vs line (O 21.5)8 / 10 hit
23152329243231192425

Tim Kelly has gone over 21.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 24.4 disposals, best 32). Current line: Over 21.5 at -227, model edge +2.2%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 19.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 18.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 17.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Tim Kelly (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tim Kelly is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.5% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles on Saturday 18 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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