Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tim Kelly is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 78 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 78%, implied 67%, edge +10.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 6:38PM UTC
AFL

Tim Kelly

West Coast Eagles

+10.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -204 (1.49) · $100→$149
+10.9% Edge
West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 24 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
78 in 100
Predicted
24.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 78.0% · the book's price implies 67.1% · gap +10.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals78.0%—67.1%1.28+10.9%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Tim Kelly (West Coast Eagles) Over 20.5 Disposals (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the upcoming clash between the West Coast Eagles and the Fremantle Dockers, all eyes are on Tim Kelly. His recent form on the road has been nothing short of stellar, averaging 22.4 disposals over the last 5 away games. Facing off against Fremantle, he has historically upped his game, averaging 24.5 disposals in their last 5 encounters. With a current hit streak of 2 on away games and a solid 67.2% disposal efficiency, Kelly is in prime form to not just meet but surpass the 20.5 disposal line. His ability to find space, rack up possessions, and create scoring opportunities make him a strong bet for smashing through that line at Optus Stadium. Trust in Kelly to deliver the goods and snag you a win in the 'Player Disposals Over/Under' market.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Tim Kelly averaged 23.9 disposals, 0.2 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

23.9
Disposals
0.2
Goals
2.8
Marks
4.9
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Geelong Cats), Tim Kelly recorded 25 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Geelong Cats25033
18 Aug 24Carlton24054
10 Aug 24North Melbourne19019
2 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS31031
27 Jul 24Fremantle32106
20 Jul 24St Kilda24054
14 Jul 24Brisbane Lions29123
7 Jul 24Melbourne23034
30 Jun 24Hawthorn15017
26 May 24Adelaide Crows23035
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 20.5 Over -204 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 19.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 18.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Tim Kelly (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tim Kelly is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.9% on this pick. Their next game is West Coast Eagles vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 24 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.