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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Clohesy is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +11.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:44AM UTC
AFL

Sam Clohesy

Gold Coast SUNS

+11.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -172 (1.58)
+11.9% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
ENGIE Stadium, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sun 22 Jun, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
75.2%
Implied Probability
63.3%
Model Edge
+11.9%
Predicted Value
17.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.2%—63.3%1.33+11.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Sam Clohesy (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 14.5 Disposals (-172)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam Clohesy is poised to exceed 14.5 disposals based on his recent form and matchup. With a model-predicted 17.9 disposals and a solid 11.9% edge, his L5 stats show consistency with 16 disposals on average in away games and 18.4 overall. Against the upcoming opponent, he averages 19 disposals, indicating a favorable matchup. Clohesy's high disposalefficiency (73.8% away, 75.2% overall) and significant metres gained (332 away, 399.2 overall) suggest he's a key ball mover. His recent hit rates (3/4 in away games, 5/6 overall) further support this bet. Expect Clohesy to maintain his form and contribute significantly to the Suns' midfield, making the Over 14.5 disposals a solid choice for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 14.5
14.2avg disposals L5
Home15.2vs Western Bulldogs17Season best23
O 12.570%
O 13.560%
O 14.560%
O 15.560%
O 16.560%
O 17.540%
Game log vs line (O 14.5)avg 15.9 · hi 23 · lo 8
1913151016178232216

Sam Clohesy has gone over 14.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 14.2 disposals, best 23).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sam Clohesy (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Clohesy is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.9% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 22 June at ENGIE Stadium, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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