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The latest Bet Better model pick for Liam Duggan is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 87%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +1.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 10:58AM UTC
AFL

Liam Duggan

West Coast Eagles

+1.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -588 (1.17)
+1.1% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 6:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
86.5%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+1.1%
Predicted Value
19.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals86.5%—85.5%1.16+1.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Liam Duggan (West Coast Eagles) Over 13.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to laying your bets on player disposals in the upcoming clash between the West Coast Eagles and Collingwood Magpies, Liam Duggan stands out as a prime pick to shine at Optus Stadium. Duggan has been a midfield maestro in recent home games, averaging a solid 21.2 disposals, with an impressive 70.7% disposal efficiency. His knack for finding the ball is evident, with an average of 16.2 kicks and 5 handballs per game. Against Collingwood specifically, he has been even more prolific, averaging 34.5 disposals in their last five encounters. With Duggan's recent form and historical dominance against the Magpies, backing him to surpass 13.5 disposals seems like a prudent play for punters looking to snag a win from this fixture.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Collingwood MagpiesO 15.5 -256
60%hit L10 O 15.5
17.2avg disposals L5
Home21.2vs Collingwood25Season best30
O 13.580%
O 14.560%
O 15.560%
O 16.560%
O 17.560%
O 18.550%
Game log vs line (O 15.5)7 / 10 hit
251819282062214248

Liam Duggan has gone over 15.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 17.2 disposals, best 30). Current line: Over 15.5 at -256.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 15.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 14.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 13.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Liam Duggan (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Liam Duggan is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.1% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 9 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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