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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Liam Duggan is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 59%, implied 80%, edge +1.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 3:55PM UTC
AFL

Liam Duggan

West Coast Eagles

+1.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+1.7% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 6:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
19.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 81.7% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap +1.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals81.7%58.9%80.0%1.70+1.7%

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AI Analysis

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Liam Duggan (West Coast Eagles) Over 14.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to predicting player performance, the numbers don't lie. Liam Duggan, the West Coast Eagles' midfield maestro, has been on a tear at home lately. Over his last five home games, Duggan has been a disposal machine, averaging a whopping 21.2 possessions per game. Facing Collingwood, a team he's historically dominated with an average of 34.5 disposals over their last five matchups, the stage is set for Duggan to shine. With his precise foot skills and ability to read the play, he's been a key intercept player, averaging 4.4 intercepts per game at home. His current form is red hot, hitting his disposal line in all of his recent home games. So, backing Duggan to surpass 14.5 disposals in this clash is not just a bet; it's a calculated move based on his recent dominance and matchup history.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Season averages (2024)

Liam Duggan averaged 21.5 disposals, 0.1 goals and 6.6 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

21.5
Disposals
0.1
Goals
6.6
Marks
2.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Geelong Cats), Liam Duggan recorded 8 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Geelong Cats8002
18 Aug 24Carlton24094
10 Aug 24North Melbourne14034
2 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS22158
14 Jul 24Brisbane Lions6011
7 Jul 24Melbourne20061
30 Jun 24Hawthorn280143
23 Jun 24Essendon19054
8 Jun 24North Melbourne18042
1 Jun 24St Kilda25082
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 14.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 13.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 15.5 Over -263 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Liam Duggan (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Liam Duggan is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 9 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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