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The latest Bet Better model pick for Liam Duggan is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 86%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +0.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:40AM UTC
AFL

Liam Duggan

West Coast Eagles

+0.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -588 (1.17)
+0.8% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 7:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
86.2%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+0.8%
Predicted Value
20.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals86.2%—85.5%1.16+0.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Liam Duggan (West Coast Eagles) Over 15.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Liam Duggan, the West Coast Eagles' unsung hero, has been a midfield maestro in recent clashes. With a stellar average of 22.6 disposals in his last five home games, Duggan has been a key playmaker, consistently finding his teammates with precision kicks (avg. 16.6) and racking up contested possessions (avg. 4.6). His mettle shines brightly against Fremantle, boasting an impressive average of 19.8 disposals in their encounters. Duggan's dispossession efficiency (80.3%) and ability to cover ground (avg. 463.8 meters gained) make him a formidable force at Optus Stadium. Riding a nine-game hit streak at home, Duggan is a reliable bet to surpass the 15.5 disposal line, given his recent form and dominance against the Dockers. Snapping up this bet is as good as watching Duggan split the middle from 50 meters out.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 17.5
17.8avg disposals L5
Home19.6vs Brisbane Lions19.3Season best30
O 15.570%
O 16.570%
O 17.570%
O 18.560%
O 19.550%
O 20.530%
Game log vs line (O 17.5)avg 18.4 · hi 28 · lo 6
251819282062214248

Liam Duggan has gone over 17.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 17.8 disposals, best 30).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 15.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 16.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 17.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Liam Duggan (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Liam Duggan is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.8% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 19 April at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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