Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Liam Baker is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +0.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:32AM UTC
AFL

Liam Baker

West Coast Eagles

+0.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -233 (1.43)
+0.3% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 7:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
70.3%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+0.3%
Predicted Value
20.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.3%69.9%1.42+0.3%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Liam Baker (West Coast Eagles) Over 17.5 Disposals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to sharp footy betting, the focus is on players who consistently impact the game. Liam Baker is one such player for the West Coast Eagles. His recent form at home showcases his ability to find the footy with an average of 19.6 disposals per game, even surpassing the line set at 17.5. Against Fremantle, he ramps it up further, averaging 20.7 disposals in his last five encounters. Baker's knack for contested possessions (6.4 avg), coupled with his solid disposal efficiency (72.2% avg), makes him a reliable choice to snag more than 17.5 disposals this game. His ability to cover the ground efficiently, gaining an average of 319.4 meters, further solidifies his potential to dominate against the Dockers. With a consistent hit rate, Baker is poised to be a key player in surpassing his disposal line.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 18.5
18.4avg disposals L5
Home20.4vs Brisbane Lions17.6Season best31
O 16.570%
O 17.560%
O 18.550%
O 19.540%
O 20.520%
O 21.510%
Game log vs line (O 18.5)avg 19.1 · hi 31 · lo 12
31241717121221202116

Liam Baker has gone over 18.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 18.4 disposals, best 31).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 17.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Liam Baker (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Liam Baker is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.3% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 19 April at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.