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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Liam Baker is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 50 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 50%, implied 64%, edge +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 3:08PM UTC
AFL

Liam Baker

West Coast Eagles

+4.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -175 (1.57) · $100→$157
+4.0% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 23 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
68 in 100
Predicted
18.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 67.6% · the book's price implies 63.7% · gap +4.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals67.6%50.4%63.7%1.99+4.0%

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AI Analysis

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Liam Baker (West Coast Eagles) Over 15.5 Disposals (-175)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to targeting a player prop bet, Liam Baker is the man to watch in this upcoming clash between West Coast Eagles and Hawthorn Hawks at Optus Stadium. Baker has been a consistent force on the field, especially in his last five home games where he has been a disposal machine, averaging 19 disposals per game. His recent form against Hawthorn has been impressive too, averaging 20.6 disposals over their last five encounters. With a stellar contested possession average of 7.4 and a knack for intercepts, Baker's ability to impact the game is undeniable. Add in his solid disposal efficiency of 81.4% and it's clear why the model predicts him to hit over 15.5 disposals comfortably. Baker's current form with a 7-game hit streak at home only solidifies the case for backing him to shine in this matchup. Betting on Baker to exceed 15.5 disposals is a smart move given his track record and recent performances.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Liam Baker averaged 19.9 disposals, 0.8 goals and 3.3 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

19.9
Disposals
0.8
Goals
3.3
Marks
3.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Liam Baker recorded 16 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS16172
3 Aug 24North Melbourne21206
28 Jul 24Collingwood20034
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide21006
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS12113
6 Jul 24Fremantle12024
30 Jun 24Carlton17113
15 Jun 24Hawthorn17017
6 Jun 24Adelaide Crows24181
1 Jun 24Geelong Cats31126
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 14.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Liam Baker (West Coast Eagles) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Liam Baker is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 23 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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