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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lachie Weller is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 68%, edge +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 3:58PM UTC
AFL

Lachie Weller

Gold Coast SUNS

+4.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -213 (1.47) · $100→$147
+4.0% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
16.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.0% · the book's price implies 68.0% · gap +4.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.0%68.0%1.39+4.0%

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AI Analysis

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Lachie Weller (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 13.5 Disposals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Lachie Weller's recent form, he's been an absolute ball magnet, especially when playing at home. With an average of 17.8 disposals in his last five home games and a solid disposalefficiency of 82.9%, Weller has been a key playmaker for the Gold Coast Suns. Against Essendon, he's been even more prolific, averaging 26 disposals in their last five encounters. His ability to find space, rack up kicks, and generate significant metres gained makes him a reliable choice to surpass the 13.5 disposal line. Weller's current hit streak at home and overall form both stand at 2 games, showcasing his consistency. With the game being played on his turf at People First Stadium, expect Weller to continue his impressive run and comfortably hit the over on disposals.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Lachie Weller averaged 16.7 disposals, 0.3 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 6 games in 2024.

16.7
Disposals
0.3
Goals
3.0
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Richmond), Lachie Weller recorded 5 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Richmond5005
17 Aug 24Melbourne21101
10 Aug 24Essendon20081
2 Aug 24West Coast Eagles17045
27 Jul 24Brisbane Lions21041
20 Jul 24GWS GIANTS16125
8 Jul 23Port Adelaide19040
1 Jul 23Collingwood14054
25 Jun 23Hawthorn12064
30 Apr 23Richmond18052
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Lachie Weller (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lachie Weller is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns on Saturday 18 April at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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