Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lachie Weller is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:46AM UTC
AFL

Lachie Weller

Gold Coast SUNS

+4.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -213 (1.47)
+4.0% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.0%
Implied Probability
68.0%
Model Edge
+4.0%
Predicted Value
16.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.0%—68.0%1.39+4.0%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Lachie Weller (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 13.5 Disposals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Lachie Weller's recent form, he's been an absolute ball magnet, especially when playing at home. With an average of 17.8 disposals in his last five home games and a solid disposalefficiency of 82.9%, Weller has been a key playmaker for the Gold Coast Suns. Against Essendon, he's been even more prolific, averaging 26 disposals in their last five encounters. His ability to find space, rack up kicks, and generate significant metres gained makes him a reliable choice to surpass the 13.5 disposal line. Weller's current hit streak at home and overall form both stand at 2 games, showcasing his consistency. With the game being played on his turf at People First Stadium, expect Weller to continue his impressive run and comfortably hit the over on disposals.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
16.3avg disposals recent
Season best30
Disposals last 10avg 16.3 · hi 21 · lo 5
1812141916211720215

Lachie Weller has a disposals high of 30 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 13.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 12.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 11.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Lachie Weller (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lachie Weller is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns on Saturday 18 April at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.