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AFL

Lachie Weller

Gold Coast SUNS

+0.4% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -500 (1.20)
+0.4% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne
Sun 5 Apr, 5:15AM
Model Probability
83.7%
Implied Probability
83.3%
Model Edge
+0.4%
Predicted Value
16.4 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Lachie Weller (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 11.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the Over on disposals, Lachie Weller stands out as a solid choice. In his last five away games, Weller has been a consistent performer, averaging an impressive 13.4 disposals. His ability to find the footy, coupled with a steady hand in distribution (78.6% disposal efficiency), makes him a reliable option to surpass the set line of 11.5 disposals against Melbourne. With an average of 6.6 kicks and 6.8 handballs per game in away fixtures, Weller is actively involved in the Suns' midfield action. Facing Melbourne, a team he has historically performed well against with an average of 10 disposals in their last encounters, further boosts his chances. Weller's recent form and reliability in hitting the Over make him a compelling pick for this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (6 picks) 83.3% (5/6)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 11.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 12.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 13.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 25 Gold Coast Suns @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
06 Sep 25 Gold Coast Suns @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
28 Jun 25 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lachie Weller (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 6 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 83.3% (5/6). The latest model pick for Lachie Weller is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.4% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 5 April at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.