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AFL

Lachie Weller

Gold Coast SUNS

Value call

Lachie Weller (Gold Coast SUNS) has one live pick today: over 13.5 disposals that pays $150 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
16.4 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 72.0% · the book's price implies 66.7% · gap +5.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 1:15 PM AEST
Lachie Weller
over 13.5 disposals
Disposals Over 13.5 -200 (1.50) · $100→$150
Value call
HIGHWins about 72 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.00 Odds-200
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lachie Weller is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 72%, the price says 67%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:14PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.0%—66.7%1.39+5.3%

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AI Analysis

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Lachie Weller (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 13.5 Disposals (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet in the AFL, you want someone who's not just reliable but a genuine game-changer. Enter Lachie Weller of the Gold Coast Suns. This bloke has been on an absolute tear lately, making the People First Stadium his personal playground. Over his last 5 home games, Weller has been an absolute workhorse, averaging a whopping 17.8 disposals, comfortably exceeding the proposed line of 13.5. With his precision kicks, strong contested possessions, and ability to read the play, he's been a nightmare for opponents. Facing Essendon, a team he's historically dominated with an average of 26 disposals in their last encounters, Weller is poised to once again split the middle and deliver for punters looking to ride his hot streak. Bet on Weller to serve up a feast of possessions and snag that Over 13.5 line with ease.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Lachie Weller averaged 16.7 disposals, 0.3 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 6 games in 2024.

16.7
Disposals
0.3
Goals
3.0
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Richmond), Lachie Weller recorded 5 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Richmond5005
17 Aug 24Melbourne21101
10 Aug 24Essendon20081
2 Aug 24West Coast Eagles17045
27 Jul 24Brisbane Lions21041
20 Jul 24GWS GIANTS16125
8 Jul 23Port Adelaide19040
1 Jul 23Collingwood14054
25 Jun 23Hawthorn12064
30 Apr 23Richmond18052
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 13.5 Over -200 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 12.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 11.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lachie Weller (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lachie Weller is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.3% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns on Saturday 18 April at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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