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The latest Bet Better model pick for John Noble is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 75%, for a model edge of +6.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 1:02PM UTC
AFL

John Noble

Gold Coast SUNS

+6.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -303 (1.33)
+6.4% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sun 2 Aug, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
81.6%
Implied Probability
75.2%
Model Edge
+6.4%
Predicted Value
25.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals81.6%—75.2%1.23+6.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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John Noble (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 20.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at John Noble's recent form, it's clear he's been a midfield maestro for the Gold Coast Suns. In his last five home games, Noble has been a ball magnet, averaging a stellar 31.2 disposals per game. Facing Melbourne, he's maintained an impressive average of 23.7 disposals, suggesting he thrives against this opponent. With a knack for finding space and using the ball efficiently (87.6% disposal efficiency), Noble is poised to surpass the 20.5 disposal line set by sportsbet. His ability to win contested possessions (5.4 average) and cover ground (637.2 metres gained) further solidify his potential to dominate the midfield battle. Bet confidently on Noble to rack up the touches and lead the Suns to victory at People First Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 26.5
26.6avg disposals L5
Away19.8vs GWS GIANTS21.2Season best29
O 24.560%
O 25.560%
O 26.550%
O 27.550%
O 28.550%
O 29.550%
Game log vs line (O 26.5)avg 17.1 · hi 28 · lo 7
248172872112142020

John Noble has gone over 26.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 26.6 disposals, best 29).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 20.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 19.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 18.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending
25 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

John Noble (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for John Noble is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.4% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Gold Coast Suns on Sunday 2 August at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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