Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for John Noble is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 80%, for a model edge of +1.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:34AM UTC
AFL

John Noble

Gold Coast SUNS

+1.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -400 (1.25)
+1.6% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
81.6%
Implied Probability
80.0%
Model Edge
+1.6%
Predicted Value
25.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals81.6%—80.0%1.23+1.6%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

John Noble (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 20.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's dive into why John Noble is a prime pick for racking up over 20.5 disposals in the upcoming Gold Coast Suns versus Western Bulldogs showdown at People First Stadium. Noble has been on fire at home, boasting a staggering average of 31.4 disposals over his last five matches on familiar turf. His recent form screams consistency, with solid numbers in contested possessions, kicks, and metres gained. Against the Bulldogs, he's been maintaining a healthy average of 20.2 disposals, showing he can handle this matchup well. With his knack for intercepts and efficient ball use, Noble is poised to shine brightly under the Gold Coast sun. The stats don't lie; he's a reliable asset to snag those crucial possessions and push past that 20.5 line with ease. Bet on Noble to be a key playmaker in this clash.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Western BulldogsO 21.5 -286+1.7% edge
70%hit L10 O 21.5
24.6avg disposals L5
Home31.4vs Western Bulldogs21.8Season best29
O 19.570%
O 20.570%
O 21.570%
O 22.570%
O 23.570%
O 24.570%
Game log vs line (O 21.5)2 / 10 hit
248172872112142020

John Noble has gone over 21.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 24.6 disposals, best 29). Current line: Over 21.5 at -286, model edge +1.7%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Sydney Swans Disposals 21.5 Over -222 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Sydney Swans Disposals 20.5 Over -323 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Sydney Swans Disposals 19.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
06 Mar 26 Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

John Noble (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for John Noble is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.6% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns on Sunday 19 July at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.