Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for James Harmes is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 70%, implied 70%, edge +0.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 3:19PM UTC
AFL
James Harmes
Western Bulldogs
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 14.5
-233 (1.43) · $100→$143
+0.5% Edge
Western Bulldogs
@
St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 12 Jun, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
70 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 70.5% · the book's price implies 69.9% · gap +0.5%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 70.5% | — | 69.9% | 1.42 | +0.5% |
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James Harmes (Western Bulldogs) Over 14.5 Disposals (-233)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
James Harmes is poised to perform well against St Kilda based on his recent stats. With a model prediction of 17.2 disposals and a consistent average of 19.4 disposals in his last five away games, he surpasses the set line of 14.5. His 70.0% disposal efficiency and ability to gain 335.6 meters on average per game further support his potential to exceed expectations. Additionally, his hit rates and streaks indicate current form with a 4/5 hit rate in away games and a three-game hit streak overall. Considering his strong recent performances, Harmes is likely to continue his solid disposals output, making the Over 14.5 bet a favorable choice.
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Season averages (2024)
James Harmes averaged 15.3 disposals, 0.8 goals and 4.1 marks per game across 9 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), James Harmes recorded 8 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 6 Sep 24 | Hawthorn | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 31 May 24 | Collingwood | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 May 24 | Sydney Swans | 22 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 May 24 | GWS GIANTS | 18 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 11 May 24 | Richmond | 27 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
| 5 May 24 | Hawthorn | 21 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 27 Apr 24 | Fremantle | 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 18 Apr 24 | St Kilda | 16 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 17 Mar 24 | Melbourne | 11 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 Aug 23 | North Melbourne | 20 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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James Harmes (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for James Harmes is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.5% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda Saints on Thursday 12 June at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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