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The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Rioli is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +3.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:33AM UTC
AFL

Daniel Rioli

Gold Coast SUNS

+3.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -588 (1.17)
+3.3% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
88.7%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+3.3%
Predicted Value
23.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals88.7%—85.5%1.13+3.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 17.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Daniel Rioli, the dynamic midfielder for the Gold Coast Suns, is poised to shine in their clash against the Western Bulldogs at People First Stadium. Rioli's recent form at home showcases his impact, averaging an impressive 22.8 disposals per game over the last five matches. His ability to find the ball in tight contests, reflected in his 3.6 contested possessions average, sets him apart as a reliable possession-winner. Moreover, his disposal efficiency of 82.9% demonstrates his composure under pressure. Facing the Bulldogs, a team he's historically performed well against with a 23 disposals average in their recent encounters, Rioli is primed to continue his dominance. With his knack for gaining meters (483.4 on average) and creating opportunities, backing Rioli to exceed 17.5 disposals is a smart bet, given his consistent output and the favorable matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Western BulldogsO 20.5 -213+4.8% edge
70%hit L10 O 20.5
21.4avg disposals L5
Home22.8vs Western Bulldogs23.8Season best36
O 18.570%
O 19.570%
O 20.570%
O 21.560%
O 22.560%
O 23.530%
Game log vs line (O 20.5)9 / 10 hit
24242626282520362130

Daniel Rioli has gone over 20.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 21.4 disposals, best 36). Current line: Over 20.5 at -213, model edge +4.8%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Mar 26 Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 18.5 Under -108 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Rioli is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.3% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns on Sunday 19 July at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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