Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Rioli is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 54%, for a model edge of +18.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 10:55AM UTC
AFL

Daniel Rioli

Gold Coast SUNS

+18.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -119 (1.84)
+18.5% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.8%
Implied Probability
54.3%
Model Edge
+18.5%
Predicted Value
23.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.8%—54.3%1.37+18.5%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 20.5 Disposals (-119)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player in the disposals market, Daniel Rioli stands out like a shining star under the Canberra lights. Rioli's recent form on the road has been nothing short of impressive, averaging a solid 18.6 disposals in his last five away clashes. Facing the GWS Giants, he's even more dangerous, boasting an average of 19.3 disposals against them in his last five encounters. Rioli's ability to find space, utilize his kicks effectively (averaging 8.4 per game), and maintain a high disposal efficiency of 86.2% showcases his reliability in possession. With a model predicting him to hit 23.5 disposals and a history of exceeding 20.5 comfortably, Rioli is primed to continue his dominance and snag that Over bet for us.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Greater Western Sydney GiantsO 20.5 -116
50%hit L10 O 20.5
18.8avg disposals L5
Away18.6vs GWS GIANTS21.2Season best36
O 18.560%
O 19.560%
O 20.550%
O 21.550%
O 22.550%
O 23.530%
Game log vs line (O 20.5)9 / 10 hit
24242626282520362130

Daniel Rioli has gone over 20.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 18.8 disposals, best 36). Current line: Over 20.5 at -116.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 15.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 16.5 Over -500 ✗ MISS
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 17.5 Over -333 ✗ MISS
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Rioli is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.5% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 9 August at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.