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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Rioli is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 66 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 66%, implied 88%, edge +6.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 3:09PM UTC
AFL

Daniel Rioli

Gold Coast SUNS

+6.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+6.2% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
95 in 100
Predicted
23.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 94.7% · the book's price implies 88.5% · gap +6.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals94.7%66.4%88.5%1.51+6.2%

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AI Analysis

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Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 15.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to AFL player props, Daniel Rioli stands out as a solid bet for hitting over 15.5 disposals against the Greater Western Sydney Giants. Rioli's recent form on the road has been impressive, averaging 18.6 disposals in his last five away games. His consistency shines through with an overall average of 18.8 disposals and a stellar disposal efficiency of 89.9%. Facing the Giants, Rioli has historically performed well, averaging 19.3 disposals in his last five matchups against them. With a current hit streak of 4 in away games and 3 overall, Rioli is in prime form to continue his strong disposals trend. Expect him to weave through traffic, find space, and rack up the possessions to comfortably surpass the 15.5 mark. The stats paint a clear picture of Rioli's reliability in this area, making the Over a smart play for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Daniel Rioli averaged 23.3 disposals, 0.3 goals and 4.0 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

23.3
Disposals
0.3
Goals
4.0
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Daniel Rioli recorded 30 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS30255
18 Aug 24Hawthorn21072
11 Aug 24St Kilda360103
3 Aug 24North Melbourne20023
28 Jul 24Collingwood25061
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide28254
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS26123
6 Jul 24Fremantle26011
30 Jun 24Carlton24073
15 Jun 24Hawthorn24030
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 15.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 16.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 17.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Rioli is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.2% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 9 August at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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