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AFL

Daniel Rioli

Gold Coast SUNS

Value call

Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) has one live pick today: over 20.5 disposals that pays $187 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
53 in 100
Predicted
23.5 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 52.5% · before adjusting for past results 72.8% · the book's price implies 53.5% · gap -0.9%.

Latest Model PickFree
Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 1:10 PM AEST
Daniel Rioli
over 20.5 disposals
Disposals Over 20.5 -115 (1.87) · $100→$187
Value call
LEANWins about 53 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.70 Odds-115
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Rioli is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 53 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 53%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 15, 4:19PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.8%52.5%53.5%1.90+19.4%

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AI Analysis

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Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 20.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, there's a blend of data and gut feeling that sets the stage for a potentially profitable wager. Daniel Rioli, the electric Gold Coast Suns forward, is poised to shine in the upcoming clash against the Greater Western Sydney Giants. Over his last five away games, Rioli has been a consistent force, averaging 18.6 disposals, with a notable uptick against the Giants at 19.3 disposals. His precision, boasting an 86.2% disposal efficiency, and his ability to cover the ground with 337.4 meters gained on average, paint a picture of a player in prime form. With a model predicting him to reach 23.5 disposals, a significant edge of 19.4% beckons savvy punters to ride the wave of Rioli's expected performance and snag the Over 20.5 disposals bet with confidence.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 6 of last 10(60%)

Season averages (2024)

Daniel Rioli averaged 23.3 disposals, 0.3 goals and 4.0 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

23.3
Disposals
0.3
Goals
4.0
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Daniel Rioli recorded 30 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS30255
18 Aug 24Hawthorn21072
11 Aug 24St Kilda360103
3 Aug 24North Melbourne20023
28 Jul 24Collingwood25061
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide28254
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS26123
6 Jul 24Fremantle26011
30 Jun 24Carlton24073
15 Jun 24Hawthorn24030
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 20.5 Over -115 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 19.5 Over -161 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 18.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Rioli is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.4% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 9 August at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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