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The latest Bet Better model pick for Alex Davies is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 67%, edge +7.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 3:12PM UTC
AFL

Alex Davies

Gold Coast SUNS

+7.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -200 (1.50) · $100→$150
+7.6% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 13 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
17.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.2% · the book's price implies 66.7% · gap +7.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.2%—66.7%1.35+7.6%

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AI Analysis

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Alex Davies (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 14.5 Disposals (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alex Davies is a strong bet to surpass 14.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions based on his recent performance trends. With an average of 17.2 disposals in his last five away games and a consistent hit rate, Davies has been a reliable contributor. His well-rounded stats, including contested possessions and effective disposals, indicate his ability to impact games. Additionally, facing an opponent where he averages 16.3 disposals, Davies is poised to meet or exceed his model prediction of 17.8 disposals with a 7.6% edge. His current hit streaks and overall form further support this bet, making the Over 14.5 disposals a favorable choice for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Alex Davies averaged 15.6 disposals, 0.1 goals and 1.1 marks per game across 7 games in 2024.

15.6
Disposals
0.1
Goals
1.1
Marks
7.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Richmond), Alex Davies recorded 16 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Richmond16014
17 Aug 24Melbourne17134
10 Aug 24Essendon18014
14 Jul 24Port Adelaide200112
25 May 24Carlton9029
16 May 24Geelong Cats12006
11 May 24North Melbourne170010
26 Aug 23North Melbourne22136
18 Jun 23Carlton9026
3 Jun 23Adelaide Crows17013
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Alex Davies (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alex Davies is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.6% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 13 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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