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AFL

Alex Davies

Gold Coast SUNS

Value call

Alex Davies (Gold Coast SUNS) has one live pick today: over 14.5 disposals that pays $152 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
17.7 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 74.0% · the book's price implies 65.8% · gap +8.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Gold Coast Suns @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 13 Sep, 7:35 PM AEST
Alex Davies
over 14.5 disposals
Disposals Over 14.5 -192 (1.52) · $100→$152
Value call
HIGHWins about 74 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.20 Odds-192
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Alex Davies is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 74%, the price says 66%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:12PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.0%—65.8%1.35+8.2%

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AI Analysis

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Alex Davies (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 14.5 Disposals (-192)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alex Davies is poised to excel in the upcoming game against the Brisbane Lions. With a model-predicted 17.7 disposals and a solid 8.2% edge, he's set to surpass the 14.5 disposals line. His recent away form showcases an average of 17.2 disposals, exceeding the required threshold. Additionally, his consistency is highlighted by a 5-game hit streak for away games and a 3-game hit streak overall. Against the Lions, he has historically recorded an average of 16.3 disposals. Davies' proficiency in contested possessions, high disposal efficiency, and strong metres gained further support his potential to meet or exceed expectations, making the Over 14.5 disposals bet a compelling choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Alex Davies averaged 15.6 disposals, 0.1 goals and 1.1 marks per game across 7 games in 2024.

15.6
Disposals
0.1
Goals
1.1
Marks
7.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Richmond), Alex Davies recorded 16 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Richmond16014
17 Aug 24Melbourne17134
10 Aug 24Essendon18014
14 Jul 24Port Adelaide200112
25 May 24Carlton9029
16 May 24Geelong Cats12006
11 May 24North Melbourne170010
26 Aug 23North Melbourne22136
18 Jun 23Carlton9026
3 Jun 23Adelaide Crows17013
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Alex Davies (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alex Davies is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.2% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 13 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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