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The latest Bet Better model pick for Alex Davies is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +7.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:42AM UTC
AFL

Alex Davies

Gold Coast SUNS

+7.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -200 (1.50)
+7.6% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 13 Sep, 9:35AM
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Model Probability
74.2%
Implied Probability
66.7%
Model Edge
+7.6%
Predicted Value
17.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.2%—66.7%1.35+7.6%

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AI Analysis

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Alex Davies (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 14.5 Disposals (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alex Davies is a strong bet to surpass 14.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions based on his recent performance trends. With an average of 17.2 disposals in his last five away games and a consistent hit rate, Davies has been a reliable contributor. His well-rounded stats, including contested possessions and effective disposals, indicate his ability to impact games. Additionally, facing an opponent where he averages 16.3 disposals, Davies is poised to meet or exceed his model prediction of 17.8 disposals with a 7.6% edge. His current hit streaks and overall form further support this bet, making the Over 14.5 disposals a favorable choice for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
15.7avg disposals recent
Season best22
Disposals last 10avg 15.7 · hi 22 · lo 9
179221712920181716

Alex Davies has a disposals high of 22 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Alex Davies (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alex Davies is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.6% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 13 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.