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Model picks & player props
Adelaide Crows
VS
Western Bulldogs

Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 3:48PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Thu 11 Jun 2026, 9:30AM
12
Game markets graded
16
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 182.5 (Total Points)
The model graded 28 markets for Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 72.4%, fair odds 1.38, book price -111, model edge +19.7%. Tip-off Thu 11 Jun 2026, 9:30AM at Marvel Stadium.

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
179.5
+ 11 more markets
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🔒

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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Western BulldogsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Bulldogs

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Adam Treloar Western Bulldogs Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Sam Berry Adelaide Crows Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Luke Pedlar Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mark Keane Adelaide Crows Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Josh Rachele Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs — what the model found

Our model graded 28 betting markets for Adelaide Crows at Western Bulldogs — 12 on the game itself and 16 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

12
Game markets graded
16
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 28 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 27 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs — recent results

Western Bulldogs have won 2 of their last 5 games; Adelaide Crows have won 4 of their last 5.

Western Bulldogs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L77–100NMFCHome
L41–78FREAway
W105–48RICHHome
W77–68SUNSAway
L64–121ADELHome
Adelaide Crows — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W63–54RICHHome
W145–73ESSAway
L74–108COLLHome
W87–71SYDAway
W128–49SUNSHome

Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Western Bulldogs won 0, Adelaide Crows won 1.

DateWestern BulldogsAdelaide CrowsWinner
Jun 1164121Adelaide Crows

Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs — model preview

Winning bets for Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Cody Weightman. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows stats and odds.

Cody Weightman (Western Bulldogs) Over 0.5 Goals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Cody Weightman and why he's a solid pick to snag a goal in the upcoming clash between the Western Bulldogs and the Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium. In his last five home games, Weightman has been a scoring machine, averaging 1.2 goals per game, showing he knows how to find the big sticks. His knack for getting involved in the play is evident with an average of 6.4 score involvements in those games. Additionally, with an average of 3.2 shots at goal per game, Weightman isn't afraid to have a crack when the opportunity arises. Facing the Crows, against whom he averages 0.7 goals in his last five home games, Cody is poised to split the middle and deliver for the Bulldogs. With his recent form and scoring prowess, backing Weightman to go over 0.5 goals seems like a wager worth considering for this Thursday night showdown.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
1
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
11 Jun 26 Moneyline Western Bulldogs ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Crows vs Bulldogs, or as Bulldogs vs Crows. The most recent game between them was Thursday 11 June 2026 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 12 game picks and 16 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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