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Model picks & player props
Adelaide Crows
VS
Western Bulldogs

Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Thu 11 Jun 2026, 9:30AM
12
Game Picks
16
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 182.5 (Total Points)
For Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs (AFL), model win probability 72.4%, fair odds 1.38, book price -111, model edge +19.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 11 Jun 2026, 9:30AM at Marvel Stadium.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
179.5
+ 11 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Western BulldogsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Bulldogs

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Adam Treloar Western Bulldogs Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Sam Berry Adelaide Crows Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Luke Pedlar Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mark Keane Adelaide Crows Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Josh Rachele Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Cody Weightman. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows stats and odds.</p>

Cody Weightman (Western Bulldogs) Over 0.5 Goals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Cody Weightman and why he's a solid pick to snag a goal in the upcoming clash between the Western Bulldogs and the Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium. In his last five home games, Weightman has been a scoring machine, averaging 1.2 goals per game, showing he knows how to find the big sticks. His knack for getting involved in the play is evident with an average of 6.4 score involvements in those games. Additionally, with an average of 3.2 shots at goal per game, Weightman isn't afraid to have a crack when the opportunity arises. Facing the Crows, against whom he averages 0.7 goals in his last five home games, Cody is poised to split the middle and deliver for the Bulldogs. With his recent form and scoring prowess, backing Weightman to go over 0.5 goals seems like a wager worth considering for this Thursday night showdown.

Arthur Jones (Western Bulldogs) Over 0.5 Goals (-189)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Arthur Jones and why backing him to snag over 0.5 goals in the upcoming clash at Marvel Stadium is as safe as houses. Jones has been a scoring machine lately, averaging a solid 1.8 goals per game in his last five home matches. With a sharpshooting goal accuracy of 66.7%, he knows how to split the middle when the pressure's on. Jones isn't just a goal sneak; he's a playmaker too, averaging 7.6 score involvements in his last five home games. Facing off against Adelaide, a team he's previously bagged goals against, Jones is in prime position to keep his scoring streak alive. Considering his current hit rate of 5 out of 5 at home and a three-game scoring streak overall, Jones is the man to watch for hitting the scoreboard in this showdown. Go on, back Jones to light up the goal tally!

Connor Budarick (Western Bulldogs) Over 16.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let’s talk about Connor Budarick for the Western Bulldogs set to face off against the Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium. Budarick, a dynamo on the field, has been a standout at home lately, averaging a solid 19.2 disposals per game over his last five matches. With impressive stats like a 73.4% disposal efficiency and an average of 13.2 kicks per game, Budarick is a key player to watch. In his last five home games, he's been a consistent force, hitting above his current line of 16.5 disposals four times. Additionally, facing the Adelaide Crows at home, he's averaged 15 disposals in his last five encounters. Considering his recent form, Budarick looks set to continue his fine run and snag more than 16.5 disposals this game. So, if you're eyeing some action in the 'Player Disposals Over/Under' market, backing Budarick to go over 16.5 seems like a smart play.

Connor Budarick (Western Bulldogs) Over 15.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to surpass a disposals line, Connor Budarick stands out as a prime candidate. As the Western Bulldogs gear up to face the Adelaide Crows on home turf at Marvel Stadium, Budarick's recent form paints a compelling picture. Over his last five home games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging an impressive 19.2 disposals. What's more, his consistency shines through with a four-game hit streak, showcasing his ability to meet or exceed expectations. With an average of 13.2 kicks and 6 handballs per game in his recent home outings, Budarick is a key link in the Bulldogs' ball movement. His knack for gaining meters (335.6 on average) and maintaining a solid disposal efficiency of 73.4% further solidify his value in the side. Against the Crows, who he's been particularly productive against with a 15-disposal average, Budarick looks poised to thrive once again. Bet on him to eclipse the 15.5 disposals mark with confidence.

Ryley Sanders (Western Bulldogs) Over 22.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Ryley Sanders' recent form, it's clear he's been a linchpin in the Western Bulldogs' midfield. In his last five home games, Sanders has been a disposal machine, averaging a whopping 29 touches per game. What's even more impressive is his efficiency, boasting an average disposal efficiency of 82.8%. He's not just accumulating possessions; he's doing it with precision. Facing off against the Adelaide Crows, whom he's historically outperformed with an average of 17.5 disposals in their last encounters, Sanders seems poised to continue his dominance. With a line set at 22.5 disposals, Sanders has a track record of exceeding this mark comfortably, making the Over a tantalizing prospect for punters. Sanders' current hit streak and consistent performance make him a reliable bet to snag those crucial disposals and help you snag a win in the 'Player Disposals Over/Under' market.

Ryley Sanders (Western Bulldogs) Over 23.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to locking in a player prop bet, Ryley Sanders is the man to watch in the upcoming Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows clash at Marvel Stadium. Sanders, playing in front of the home crowd, has been a disposal machine in his last five home games, averaging a whopping 29 disposals with an impressive disposal efficiency of 82.8%. His ability to find the footy and make an impact is undeniable, consistently racking up kicks and handballs while covering ground with an average of 272.8 meters gained. With a solid track record of hitting his disposal line and facing an opponent against whom he's historically performed well, Sanders is poised to deliver another stellar performance. Betting on Sanders to go over 23.5 disposals is a calculated move backed by his recent form and matchup advantages.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
1
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
11 Jun 26 Head to Head Western Bulldogs ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 11 June 2026 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 12 game picks and 16 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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