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Model picks & player props
Geelong Cats
VS
Hawthorn Hawks

Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 23, 7:11AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Mon 6 Apr 2026, 5:15AM
2
Game markets graded
10
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Geelong Cats 9.5 Spread -111

The model graded 12 markets for Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 6 Apr 2026, 5:15AM at MCG.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win70.0%
The price says52.6%
Best price-111
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Geelong Cats 9.5 High70% chance -111
Moneyline Lean59% chance
Disposals × 6 props Highup to 76%
Goals × 4 props Highup to 93%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Geelong Cats
+9.5
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Geelong CatsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Geelong CatsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cats

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Blake Hardwick Hawthorn Disposals
Tom Atkins Geelong Cats Disposals
Karl Amon Hawthorn Disposals
Jarman Impey Hawthorn Disposals
Jack Gunston Hawthorn Goals

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Geelong Cats @ Hawthorn Hawks — what the model found

Our model graded 12 betting markets for Geelong Cats at Hawthorn Hawks — 2 on the game itself and 10 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
10
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 12 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 11 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks — recent results

Hawthorn Hawks have won 0 of their last 0 games; Geelong Cats have won 4 of their last 5.

Geelong Cats — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W133–76RICHHome
W125–110NMFCAway
W117–50ESSHome
W102–75STKHome
L73–86GWSAway

Geelong Cats @ Hawthorn Hawks — model preview

Latest AFL betting preview: Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Jarman Impey. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats stats and odds.

Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 18.5 Disposals (-172)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Listen up, footy punters! When it comes to Monday night's clash between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Geelong Cats, all eyes should be on Hawthorn's dynamic playmaker, Jarman Impey. The stats paint a clear picture: Impey has been on fire at home, averaging a whopping 24.8 disposals over his last 5 games at the MCG. His ability to find the footy, coupled with a solid contested possessions average of 5.8 and a stellar disposal efficiency of 70.4%, positions him perfectly to surpass the bookmaker's line of 18.5 disposals. With a current hit streak and a trend of consistency, backing Impey to go over 18.5 disposals is a no-brainer. Expect him to rack up the possessions and play a pivotal role in Hawthorn's midfield dominance on home turf.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Cats vs Hawks, or as Hawks vs Cats. The most recent game between them was Monday 6 April 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 2 game picks and 10 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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