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Model picks & player props
Geelong Cats
VS
Hawthorn Hawks

Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 3, 3:35AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Mon 6 Apr 2026, 5:15AM
2
Game Picks
10
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Geelong Cats 9.5 (Spread)
For Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks (AFL), model win probability 70.0%, fair odds 1.43, book price -111, model edge +17.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Mon 6 Apr 2026, 5:15AM at MCG.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Geelong Cats
+9.5
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Geelong CatsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Geelong CatsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cats

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Blake Hardwick Hawthorn Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tom Atkins Geelong Cats Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Karl Amon Hawthorn Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jarman Impey Hawthorn Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Gunston Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Geelong Cats @ Hawthorn Hawks — model preview

<p>Latest AFL betting preview: Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Jarman Impey. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats stats and odds.</p>

Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 18.5 Disposals (-172)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Listen up, footy punters! When it comes to Monday night's clash between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Geelong Cats, all eyes should be on Hawthorn's dynamic playmaker, Jarman Impey. The stats paint a clear picture: Impey has been on fire at home, averaging a whopping 24.8 disposals over his last 5 games at the MCG. His ability to find the footy, coupled with a solid contested possessions average of 5.8 and a stellar disposal efficiency of 70.4%, positions him perfectly to surpass the bookmaker's line of 18.5 disposals. With a current hit streak and a trend of consistency, backing Impey to go over 18.5 disposals is a no-brainer. Expect him to rack up the possessions and play a pivotal role in Hawthorn's midfield dominance on home turf.

Karl Amon (Hawthorn) Over 20.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop, Karl Amon is the prime candidate to shine in the 'Player Disposals Over' market against the Geelong Cats at the hallowed MCG. Amon's recent form at home has been nothing short of stellar, averaging a whopping 21.2 disposals per game over his last five outings. His ability to find the footy and impact the game is evident, with an average of 15.2 kicks and 6 handballs per game in his home turf performances. Moreover, he's been a constant threat against Geelong, averaging 22.5 disposals in their past encounters. With a model prediction of 24.4 disposals and a solid hit rate, Amon is poised to surpass the 20.5 disposal line comfortably and be a key figure in Hawthorn's midfield dominance.

Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) Over 13.5 Disposals (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Monday night footy at the MCG, all eyes are on Blake Hardwick of the Hawthorn Hawks. With an average of 18.2 disposals in his last five home games and a solid contested possessions rate of 4.8, Hardwick is a midfield maestro on home turf. Add in his pinpoint disposals efficiency at 78.8% and an impressive 14.2 kicks per game, and it's clear he's a key playmaker. Facing the Geelong Cats, against whom he averages 15 disposals in their latest encounters, the stage is set for Hardwick to shine. With a current hit streak and a strong hit rate, backing Hardwick to surpass 13.5 disposals is a smart bet with a high probability of success. This is where the stats paint a promising picture for Hardwick to dominate the midfield battle and rack up the possessions.

Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) Over 18.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to laying a solid bet on player disposals, Tom Atkins from the Geelong Cats stands out as a prime candidate to surpass the 18.5 line against the Hawthorn Hawks at the MCG. Over his last five away games, Atkins has been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 23.4 disposals. His ability to find the footy is underscored by his recent form, boasting impressive stats like 11.8 kicks and 11.6 handballs per game away. Additionally, his disposal efficiency sits at a sharp 75.5%, ensuring he maximizes possessions. With a knack for contested possessions (11.4 avg) and intercepts (3.4 avg), Atkins is poised to dominate the midfield battle. Add in his consistent hit rates, including a 4-game streak, and backing him to go over 18.5 disposals seems like a bet with a high probability of hitting pay dirt.

Karl Amon (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Karl Amon to go over 19.5 disposals in the upcoming clash between the Hawthorn Hawks and Geelong Cats, the numbers are in our favor. Amon has been a consistent force at home, averaging 21.2 disposals in his last five home games, including a solid 22.5 against Geelong. His sharp disposalefficiency of 79.0% and ability to cover the ground with 472 metres gained per game make him a key player to watch. With his recent form against this opponent and an overall disposals average of 19.8, Amon is poised to snag plenty of possessions in front of the home crowd at the MCG. Backing him to surpass 19.5 disposals seems like a smart bet given his recent performances and historical stats.

Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 17.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to picking a player prop bet in the AFL, you want a bloke who's not just reliable but also in ripping form. That's why Jarman Impey is the top choice for the Disposals Over market against the Geelong Cats. Mate, Impey's been on an absolute tear lately, racking up an average of 24.8 disposals in his last five home games. With his current hot streak, hitting numbers like 17.5 is a walk in the park for him. Plus, facing off against the Cats, he's already been averaging 18.8 disposals against them. Add in his solid contested possessions and intercepts, and you've got a recipe for a cracking bet. Trust me, backing Impey to snag over 17.5 disposals is as safe as houses.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
06 Apr 26 Spread Geelong Cats +9.5 ✓ HIT
06 Apr 26 Moneyline Geelong Cats ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 2 game picks and 10 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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